Thai exports are projected to grow by 3-4% at best this year, as the ongoing trade war is unlikely to end any time soon, economists told a forum on the spat.
A group of Thai exporters warned at a separate event that the strong baht is a major threat to export growth prospects this year and asked responsible state units to rein in the currency to make outbound shipments more competitive.
Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political economist at Thammasat University, speaking at a seminar on "Thailand Exports in 2019 Amidst Global Uncertainties" said international trade will suffer both from the world's economic slowdown and the escalating trade war.
"The trade war is expected to be prolonged and is unlikely to conclude soon," he said at the event held by the Commerce Ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
There are new threats to the world's trade prospects such as comprehensive and unlimited free-trade agreements, new technology, climate change and health concerns, Mr Somjai said.
"If Thailand manages 3-4% export growth this year, that would be a job well done," he said.
Mr Somjai also expressed concern about the manufacturing sector's ability to keep up with rapidly changing technology and environmental and food safety requirements.
Many Thai exporters still lack knowledge and competency on those challenging issues, while China, the US and Europe have well-developed artificial intelligence and innovations.
To offset the threats, the government is being urged to work harder to tap new markets such as Africa and Latin America, while reinforcing growth in traditional export markets such as the US, Japan and the EU.
"As Thailand is chairing Asean this year, it should push for the conclusion of membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership this year and implement the Asean Economic Community 2025 roadmap," Mr Somjai said.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, said the trade war is expected to be protracted and more serious in the foreseeable future because the US intends to retaliate against China.
"Short-term, medium-term and long-term retaliatory measures by the US are anticipated," he said. "Thailand should come up with well-prepared defensive measures, and the trade row may eventually lead to polarisation."
Mr Thitinan said Thailand should cooperate with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, as well as the Greater Mekong Subregion, the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy and the Asean Economic Community, which are expected to reap benefits from a flood of investment from both the US and China.
"Thai exports should not rely only on a [weak] currency and low wages, but more on productivity enhancement and a better understanding of global tensions to be more independent," he said.
Arm Tungnirun, a lecturer on the law faculty of Chulalongkorn University, said the trade war is unlikely to end soon, as the row has developed into a technological and geopolitical war.
"Thailand is expected to be mired in long-term uncertainties," Mr Arm said. "Thai exporters, therefore, need to conduct more long-term contracts with trading partners to stay safe."
Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairwoman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said the group of exporters is more concerned about the continuous appreciation of the baht, warning that a strong baht, if left unharnessed, could derail export growth targets.
The TNSC is scheduled to meet with the Bank of Thailand to discuss possible methods to manage the baht.
Ms Ghanyapad said exporters want the central bank to stabilise the baht and have it move in line with the currencies of competitors and trading partners.
The TNSC expects Thai exports to have a chance to grow less than 5% if the baht stays strong at 31-32 baht per dollar.
Prinn Panitchpakdi, a governor of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and country head of CLSA Securities Thailand, said that based on Thailand's economic fundamentals, the baht is considered weak.
Mr Prinn said Thailand still enjoys a current account surplus, with more anticipated capital inflows, while most countries around the world are indebted.
He said Thailand could see the baht firm to as much as 28 or 25 to the dollar in the future. He urged exporters to change their mindset and upgrade products towards premium quality and innovation.