The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) subcommittees examining the impacts of the takeover deal of fixed broadband service 3BB by Advanced Info Service (AIS) are expected to wrap up their findings this month and submit them to the regulator's board in the third quarter, according to an analyst.
The deal will be able to pass legal and administrative scrutiny by the regulator's board as the fixed broadband internet market is different from the already saturated mobile phone service market, according to Pisut Ngamvijitvong, senior equity research analyst at Kasikorn Securities (KS).
The NBTC board set up four subcommittees, each tasked with scrutinising the deal in terms of its economic impact, technical impact, legal impact as well as its impact on consumers.
Mr Pisut said KS believes the four subcommittees would finish their task by the end of August, paving the way to propose all related studies and documents to the NBTC's board by the third quarter.
The subcommittee studying the impact on consumers has already completed its work and held a public hearing on July 25 with focus groups.
Mr Pisut said the three other subcommittees are expected to finish their studies by the middle of this month before the end of their working term, although they could ask the NBTC's board to extend their working term for another month if they are not able to complete their work on time.
He noted that True Corporation, 3BB, AIS and National Telecom are the four big players in the fixed broadband service market. Some smaller providers focus on serving specific customers such as the corporate and enterprise sectors.
The fixed broadband business ecosystem is different from the mobile phone service market which saw the recent complete merger of True Corporation and Total Access Communication (DTAC) to become True Corp.
The merger drew heavy public criticism over the possibility of monopolistic practices and the huge impact on consumers.
Mr Pisut said after AIS's takeover of 3BB, the fixed broadband market would still have three big players.
The fixed broadband internet market still has room for growth. The number of household broadband internet users in Thailand is below 60% of total households nationwide, compared to 80-100% in developed countries.
However, he said the NBTC would still have to protect consumer benefits by setting remedy measures to govern the deal, including that the involved companies must provide service options to consumers.
They will have to offer packages for those who want to subscribe only to the fixed broadband service with an affordable tariff, instead of trying to urge customers to subscribe to a bundled package of fixed broadband and mobile phone service.
Prawit Leesathapornwongsa, head of the subcommittee for consumer impact, said he strongly believes the NBTC board would definitely endorse the takeover deal but impose remedy measures governing the procedure after the deal to protect consumer benefits in the market.
He earlier said the deal may create less of an economic effect compared to the True-DTAC merger deal.
ROOM FOR COMPETITION
At the public hearing on July 25, Chatra Kamsaeng, director of The 101.world public policy think tank, said True now has a 37.3% market share for fixed broadband services, followed by 3BB at 29.4%, National Telecom at 15.9%, AIS at 14.3% and others at 3.1%.
He added that the takeover deal would create a new leader with a market share of 43.7% that will easily pave the way for a new leader to benefit from the fixed-mobile convergence strategy.
However, the takeover deal may not broaden the impact on consumers. Mr Chatra said areas of the market where AIS and 3BB mainly provide services, such as in metropolitan areas, the service tariff could increase by between 9.5% and 22.9%.
In contrast, in the markets where AIS or 3BB do not provide fixed broadband services or which have other operators in the area, the deal is unlikely to create an impact on consumers.
A telecom veteran who requested anonymity said the market size of fixed broadband is only one-third that of the mobile phone service business, according to performance reports disclosed to the SET by AIS, True and DTAC in 2022.
Income in the home broadband internet business stood at 66.2 billion baht with only 13 million household subscribers, while the mobile phone service business reported a total revenue of more than 251 billion baht with the total number of mobile subscribers reaching over 101 million in 2022.
The source believes the integration of the broadband internet service business will have an insignificant impact on consumers.