As China lets tour groups visit Japan for the first time in three years, Thailand could see fewer tourists from that country if the government does not fix obstacles related to visa applications for Chinese groups.
This week China lifted the ban on tour groups to several countries, including Japan, South Korea, the US and Australia, after imposing the restriction in 2020.
Last month, China also asked Japan to offer a visa waiver for its nationals.
Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta), said easing the visa application process could prove a major lure for inbound tourism at a time when competitors are opening up to tour groups.
Although the Foreign Affairs Ministry worked to reduce the required paperwork for Chinese tourist visas and cut the approval process to seven days, he said it was still unclear how to revive this market.
Mr Adith said he was unsure whether Thailand could secure 5 million Chinese tourists this year.
The number of tour groups has barely grown as the association received only 3,000-5,000 Chinese tourists per day, compared with more than 10,000 per day in 2019.
He said Atta is calling for a temporary tourist visa fee waiver for several months in order to raise tourist volume.
Punlop Saejew, president of the Tourism Council of Chiang Mai, said operators in the city are awaiting Chinese tourists to help sustain their businesses, particularly small hotels, bus operators, and some restaurants that used to accommodate large groups.
Mr Punlop said although Thailand and Chiang Mai remain top choices for Chinese tourists, with Chiang Mai registering more than 120,000 Chinese visitors since the start of the year, ongoing visa obstacles make Thailand less attractive.
As China is at risk of going into deflation, this would affect people's decision to travel abroad, he said.
According to a survey of 91 hotels by the Thai Hotels Association, almost 70% of respondents expect Chinese customers to recover to less than 40% of 2019 levels in the fourth quarter.
Wutthiphum Jurangkool, chief executive of Nok Air, said he believes demand from Chinese tourists to visit Thailand will be higher than for Japan, thanks to lower living costs.
In terms of air ticket sales, there is still high travel demand from various Chinese cities to visit Thailand amid limited seat supply in the market, said Mr Wutthiphum.
Nok Air flights to Zhengzhou and Nanning are recording an average load factor of 80-85%.
The airline plans to resume flights to four more cities by the end of September to meet soaring demand, in time for China's Golden Week holiday in early October, he said.