An extremely weak low season for outbound tour groups is expected this year based on sluggish demand, surging operational costs at popular destinations and tropical storms.
Charoen Wangananont, president of the Thai Travel Agents Association, said the sales rate for outbound packages in the third quarter this year is low compared with the corresponding period before the pandemic as both Thai individuals and executives remain reluctant to spend on travel.
With regard to group travel, government agencies were once a major market for tour companies, but they are worried about budget allocation during the political vacuum, said Mr Charoen.
Some agencies are refraining from overseas trips to avoid accusations of extravagant spending, he said.
Mr Charoen said only those with high purchasing power are scheduling trips overseas, part of a trend following the pandemic.
Destinations that could typically offer competitive prices are now facing obstacles, notably South Korea, he said.
The country has seen a decline in package sales based on concerns about Typhoon Khanun, which hit the country last week.
Mr Charoen said the number of seats on South Korean routes has resumed by 60-70% of the capacity recorded in 2019.
Even with low supply, most airlines offered lower fares, with prices down to 10,000 baht for a round-trip ticket to Korea as demand was weak.
Meanwhile, he said tour operators set package prices at only 75% of the regular rate used before the pandemic.
"The previous standard for South Korea packages was a minimum of 25,000 baht, but with sluggish demand during the low season, the package price was reduced to 75% of the preferred rate, which represented a loss for us," said Mr Charoen.
Groups also avoided planning incentive programmes to South Korea as the K-ETA application system hindered some individuals from registering, making it impossible for corporations that have to offer the same standard of travel reward to each of their employees, he said.
Mr Charoen said while outbound travel is expected to recover starting next month, the cost of travel to popular destinations such as Japan might cause Thai tourists to think twice.
"We've been informed that many service items in Japan, such as transport and hotels, will significantly increase their prices," he said.
"This could result in package prices rising 15-20% in the upcoming high season. The minimum price for Japan tours could be 35,000 baht."
The outbound market this year is estimated at 6-7 million, down from 11 million in 2019.
Mr Charoen said it would take 2-3 years to equal the volume of outbound tours recorded in 2019, given that every destination now is pricier, often more than the average Thai can afford.
For example, he said tours to Europe could be as high as 100,000 baht per person.
