Thai exports unexpectedly bounced back to growth for the first time in 11 months, supported by improved signals from the global manufacturing sector, positive consumer spending, and an expanding service sector among trading partners.
The growth was bolstered by the promotion of clean energy policies and higher demand for technological products, while the relative depreciation of the baht also had a positive influence on exports, according to the Commerce Ministry.
The ministry reported yesterday the customs-cleared value of exports rose by 2.6% year-on-year in August to US$24.3 billion, while imports contracted by 12.8% to $23.9 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $360 million.
Thai exports in the real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products and weaponry) grew by 3.9% from August last year.
Shipments of agricultural and agro-industrial products contracted by 1.5% for the month to $4.03 billion, while industrial product exports expanded by 2.5% to $19.2 billion.
For the first eight months of this year, Thai exports fell by 4.5% to $188 billion, while imports decreased by 5.7% to $196 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $7.92 billion.
"Thailand's exports in August performed relatively well compared with other countries, as several regional peers all recorded declines. India's exports fell by 6.9%, Taiwan by 7.3%, South Korea by 8.3%, China by 8.8%, Singapore by 12.6%, and Malaysia and Indonesia both by 21.2%," said permanent commerce secretary Keerati Rushchano.
He attributed the increase in Thai exports to agricultural products, which grew 4.2%, the first uptick in four months. Notable increases included fresh and frozen fruit, which grew by 99.8%, rice by 10.8%, food seasonings by 28.6%, canned and processed vegetables by 26.5%, milk and dairy products by 13.2%, and fresh, frozen, and dried vegetables by 22.8%.
Industrial product shipments also grew for the first time in three months. Key products posting growth included automobiles and auto parts, which increased by 5.2%, electronic circuit boards by 39.8%, machinery and components by 6.4%, telephones and telephone parts by 36.9%, semiconductor transistors and diodes by 74.5%, electric transformers and components by 59.1%, and computers and computer parts by 26.9%.
Mr Keerati expressed optimism that the export trend would continue in September. However, shipments in September 2022 were robust at $25.0 billion.
He said it was unclear whether exports will exceed $20 billion in September this year, but the figures from October to December are expected to be positive based on increased orders.
"Our annual export target remains unchanged at 1-2% growth. We are working hard to avoid a contraction," said Mr Keerati. "Thailand's private sector plays a significant role in driving exports, and collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial in supporting export activities."
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the private sector sees potential for a turnaround in exports in the fourth quarter this year. However, he said shipments are highly likely to contract by 1% this year.
The 2.6% increase in exports in August followed a decline for 10 consecutive months, starting in October 2022, with a contraction of 4.2% that month; 5.6% in November 2022; 14.3% in December 2022; 4.6% in January 2023; 4.8% in February 2023; 4.2% in March 2023; 7.7% in April 2023; 4.6% in May 2023; 6.5% in June 2023; and 6.2% in July 2023.
"These figures make it very challenging for Thailand to turn around outbound shipments to positive territory in the remaining months," Mr Chaichan said.