The Commerce Ministry expects Thai exports to continue improving during the final three months of this year, resulting in a smaller contraction for 2023 than was previously projected.
Factors contributing to the positive trend include collaboration between the government and the private sector to address export challenges and increase export activities, as well as higher imports of agricultural and food products because of drought conditions, stable exchange rates, and stocking up of inventory ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays, according to the ministry.
Moreover, industrial products are poised for growth, aligning with digital technology and clean energy trends, said permanent commerce secretary Keerati Rushchano.
"Although the export performance for the entire year is likely to remain negative, the contraction could be less than the forecasts of many agencies," he said.
The ministry reported on Tuesday the country's exports increased for a second straight month in September, up by 2.1% year-on-year to US$25.5 billion, while imports fell by 8.3% to $23.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $2.09 billion.
Exports in the real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products and weaponry) grew by 1% year-on-year in September.
The uptick in September exports was driven by agricultural and agro-industrial products. Notably, fruit exports to China posted significant growth, such as durian and mangosteen, as did rice exports to South African and Indonesian markets.
Industrial exports continue to expand, aligned with trends such as solar cells and mobile phones, said Mr Keerati.
However, the global manufacturing sector remains in a state of contraction, according to the ministry.
Thai exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products expanded by 12% year-on-year in September to $4.18 billion, led by fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit (+166%), rice (51.4%), cassava products (3.7%), sugar (16.3%), animal and vegetable fats and oils (12.8%), sauces and preparations (27.1%), canned and processed vegetables (17.3%), milk and dairy products (3.1%), fresh, chilled, frozen and dried vegetables (7.9%) and fresh eggs (52.7%).
Industrial product exports contracted by 0.3% in September to $20.2 billion. Products with a significant decline included computers, equipment and parts (-24.3%), rubber products (-5.5%), air conditioners and components (-27.7%), motorcycles and parts (-34.6%) and aluminium products (-15.8%).
However, some product segments expanded, including automobiles, equipment and auto parts (+3.3%), gems and jewellery excluding gold (27.3%), telephones, equipment and parts (23.9%), electrical transformers and parts (46.4%), and semiconductors, transistors and diodes (28.8%).
According to Mr Keerati, the recovery of key markets remained uneven, partly because of ongoing geopolitical risks, international conflicts, and persistently high interest rates over an extended period, which has contributed to the slowing of global demand.
Thailand's export performance fared well in September compared with other countries, such as India, which reported a decrease in shipments by 2.6%, while South Korea fell by 4.4% and China declined by 6.2%.
Exports from Singapore decreased by 9.5% for the period, while Malaysia dipped by 16.2% and Indonesia was down 16.2%.
However, Vietnam posted growth of 2.1% in September.
For the first nine months of the year, Thai exports fell by 3.8% to $213 billion, while imports decreased by 6.0% to $219 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.83 billion.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the export performance in September was better than expected, but the council still maintains its forecast for an export contraction of -1% this year.