The Tourism Authority of Thailand's (TAT) target of 8.2 million Chinese arrivals in 2024 is "quite challenging", say analysts, as they cut their forecasts for total foreign arrivals next year amid a weak global economy.
Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand), said the brokerage maintained its projection of 27 million arrivals this year, but cut the forecast for 2024 from 36 million to 32 million.
Even with the visa exemption programme for Chinese tourists, effective from Sept 25 this year until Feb 29, 2024, the number of arrivals from China has averaged about 9,500 per day since last month, compared with 30,123 daily in 2019. Year-to-date, some 3 million Chinese tourists have arrived in Thailand.
"With the shooting incident at Siam Paragon in early October, we believe it is unlikely for Thailand to see a sharp rise in the number of Chinese tourists in the fourth quarter," Mr Kasem said, following recent discussions with TAT deputy governor Nithee Seeprae.
Last month 285,000 Chinese visited Thailand, accounting for 33% of the 852,000 arrivals recorded in the corresponding period of 2019.
According to the TAT, the weak demand from Chinese tourists was attributed to Beijing's focus on domestic tourism.
"Even though flight availability from China is still 40% below the pre-pandemic level, we do not think it is the main reason for the slow recovery of Chinese tourists," Mr Kasem said.
"The TAT anticipates 4 million Chinese tourists this year and 8.2 million in 2024, which we believe is quite challenging."
The TAT targets 25-30 million foreign arrivals this year and 35 million in 2024. For domestic tourism, the TAT projects 160 million trips this year and 200 million trips in 2024.
The agency expects total tourism revenue to rise from 2.38 trillion baht (US$66 billion) this year to 3 trillion baht in 2024, on par with 2019 when Thailand welcomed 40 million foreign visitors, he said.
Maybank Securities said broadening the government's visa waiver programme to cover certain European countries could boost Thailand's slow tourism recovery.
"As European tourists are one of the highest-spending groups, a waiver would help offset lacklustre demand from China," the investment banking arm of Maybank said in a research note.
Thailand has welcomed 23.2 million visitors as of mid-November and Maybank anticipates 26 million for the full year.