A Thai shipping group feels optimistic about the resilience of Thai exports despite a spate of challenges, forecasting the sector to contract 1% this year, improving from an earlier outlook of a 1.5% decline.
The group expects Thai outbound shipments to recover to 1-2% growth next year.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said the council forecast exports to grow by up to 7% in the fourth quarter, putting the full-year tally at about -1%.
This positive momentum is expected to continue into next year, he said.
According to the Commerce Ministry's latest data, exports increased for a third straight month in October, up by 8% to US$23.5 billion, while imports gained by 10.2% to $24.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $832 million.
The uptick in October exports was largely attributed to a rebound in global demand.
Positive signals were observed in various sectors, including computers, plastic pellets, rubber products, animal food, furniture and components. This growth was supported by the gradual recovery of demand during the year-end festive season.
In addition, China's extensive stimulus measures began to show results, leading to a recovery in consumption and investment figures within China.
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"Thai exports are expected to grow 1-2% in 2024, with a total value ranging from $287 to $289 billion. This outlook is attributed to continued growth in exports of food products, fruit, automobiles and auto parts, electrical appliances, and electronic goods," said Mr Chaichan.
"These industries are expected to drive the export sector forward, with emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East showing significant expansion."
In addition, the baht is expected to remain relatively weak, within a range of 34.9 to 35.1 per US dollar, enhancing the competitiveness of Thai products, he said.
The price of fuel is also unlikely to pressure freight rates because of relatively low demand in the manufacturing sectors of major economies, such as China, said Mr Chaichan.
"Next year is perceived as challenging for Thai exports, as a more severe global economic storm is on the horizon given a slowing worldwide economy and anticipated drought," he said.
"Despite these challenges, we remain confident in the export strength of food and automobiles, while a weakening baht helps, as do additional incentives for shipments."