The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) is maintaining its export forecast at -1% for 2023, despite the sector showing signs of recovery and expansion in the final quarter.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the TNSC, said exports are estimated at US$2.85 billion in 2023, contracting by 1%, in line with the council's prediction.
Growth of 1-2% is anticipated for 2024 shipments, said Mr Chaichan.
According to the latest data from the Commerce Ministry, Thai exports rose for a fourth consecutive month in November, up by 4.9% year-on-year to $23.5 billion, while imports increased by 10.1% to $25.9 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.39 billion.
Goods exports expanded across all categories, particularly agricultural products, which posted significant growth compared with other categories.
Industrial products gained following the cyclical recovery of electronic products, while some sectors benefited from advance purchases before year-end festivities, prompting manufacturers in many countries to expedite imports to meet demand.
For the first 11 months of last year, exports decreased by 1.5% to $262 billion, while imports dipped by 3.8% to $268 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $6.16 billion.
Mr Chaichan said key factors to monitor this year include baht movements, policy interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about production costs.
He said the baht is expected to slightly strengthen, fluctuating within a range of 34-35 per US dollar.
US inflation should be monitored as the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in the first quarter of this year, said Mr Chaichan.
Interest rates in many countries remain elevated, but could gradually decrease in some countries as inflation conditions ease, he said.
Prolonged political conflicts, particularly the crisis in the Red Sea's Bab al-Mandab area, which is a major shipping route to Europe and the Middle East, have led to increased shipping costs and longer transport times.
In addition, uncertainties persist regarding production costs, including electricity prices, minimum wages, and rising shipping costs to Europe, said Mr Chaichan.
To facilitate export growth this year, he suggested relevant agencies manage and address risk factors that directly affect business costs, such as energy, electricity tariffs, minimum wages, and interest rates at appropriate levels.
Measures such as soft loans would enhance flexibility, especially for small businesses, said Mr Chaichan.
In addition, supporting budget allocations for opening new potential markets in 2024, including promoting cross-border trade activities for Thailand, should be increased, he said.
Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said exports are expected to recover to growth this year from a contraction in 2023, even as geopolitical conflicts and wars continue to rage.
Various types of Thai exports still have opportunities to expand their markets such as food, fruit, automotive components, rubber, cassava, electrical appliances, and electronics, driven by increased demand from trading partners, he said.
In addition, new market penetration in high-potential regions such as the Middle East, India and Africa holds promise, said Mr Sanan.
Foreign investment should increase significantly this year because of government efforts to attract foreign direct investment, particularly in the electric vehicle and clean energy sectors, as well as high-innovation industries, he said.
Ongoing negotiations for free trade agreements with several countries are expected to support Thailand's role as a central hub for future investments in the region, said Mr Sanan.
"We expect the economy to grow at least 3% in the first quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, with full-year growth of 3.2%, excluding the impact of the digital wallet project," he said.
"Export growth is expected in a range of 2% to 3%. The inflation rate is estimated at 2%, while household debt is expected to decrease to 87.8% of GDP."