As long as India maintains its ban on white rice exports, local shippers remain optimistic that Thai rice prices should stay relatively high in the first half of this year.
According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, prices in the global market are likely to hover around US$600 per tonne, which is the highest in more than a decade as demand remains robust from various countries.
Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan are the main rice-exporting countries in Asia.
Mr Chookiat also anticipates Indonesia continuing its rice imports this year, although possibly at a lower quantity than the previous year, when it bought almost 4 million tonnes from many countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar.
He said rice exports last year likely totalled 8.8-8.9 million tonnes, surpassing the previous projection of 8.5 million tonnes, with an estimated value of 180 billion baht as prices increased.
In November 2022, rice exports reached 1 million tonnes, valued at 23.0 billion baht, marking a 19.9% increase in volume and a 23.3% increase in value compared with October 2022.
The uptick was attributed to increased exports of white and hom mali fragrant rice, as key importers accelerated their imports to compensate for reduced domestic supply amid record-high global rice prices, especially for white rice, which reached the highest levels in 15 years.
The association predicts the rice export volume last month was around 900,000 tonnes as exporters are committed to delivering a large quantity of rice this month, coupled with significant demand from key importers in Asia such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Japan.
Major markets in Africa, the Middle East and the Americas are also expected to post strong demand for white rice, glutinous rice and fragrant rice to compensate for reduced production in those countries and to build reserves for the first quarter of 2024.
Thailand's rice supply remains sufficient and the price of Thai rice remains competitive, leading importers to opt for the local grain, Mr Chookiat said.
As of Dec 27, 2023 the price of Thai white rice 5% was quoted at $659 per tonne, while the prices from Vietnam and Pakistan were in the range of $653-657 and $593-597 per tonne, respectively.
The price of Thai parboiled rice was $659 per tonne, while the prices for parboiled rice from India and Pakistan were in the range of $513-517 and $546-550 per tonne, respectively.
He said the association forecasts Thailand shipping around 7.5 million tonnes this year as India may reverse course and allow rice exports in the second half.
However, the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon on global rice production remains uncertain and will be monitored this year, said Mr Chookiat.
According to the latest data from the Customs Department, for the first 11 months of 2023 Thailand exported 7.95 million tonnes of rice valued at 160 billion baht ($4.61 billion), marking a 14.7% increase in volume and a 28.9% uptick in value year-on-year.