Consumer confidence rose for a sixth consecutive month in January, reaching the highest level in 47 months since March 2020, propped up by the government's stimulus measures to propel spending and reduce electricity and fuel prices.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported on Tuesday the consumer confidence index rose to 62.9 in January, up from 62.0 in December, 60.9 in November, 60.2 in October, 58.7 in September, 56.9 in August and 55.6 in July.
"People are starting to see a gradual improvement in the economy, driven by the recovery of domestic tourism, expansion of exports and improved crop prices," said Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the UTCC.
"When the fiscal 2024 budget disbursement starts in the second quarter, consumer confidence is expected to gradually recover in the latter half of the year, leading to clear economic growth in the fourth quarter."
In the first half of the year, Mr Thanavath said the tourism sector will play a pivotal role in economic expansion.
The UTCC estimates economic growth of 3.0-3.5% this year.
However, if the government implements its digital wallet scheme, growth could near 4%, he said.
"The economy this year will be driven by four key factors: tourism, exports, agricultural product prices and government spending. We expect the economy to gradually recover, with a clear rebound in the fourth quarter," said Mr Thanavath.
"The key lies in the government's stimulus measures, especially the digital wallet scheme."
He said the potential growth drivers are the tourism sector and improving exports.
In addition, higher prices for agricultural products and increased income for farmers should positively affect GDP, potentially leading to a growth rate exceeding 3%, said Mr Thanavath.
The university also released the TCC Confidence Index, which gauges the sentiment of the business sector and chamber members in every province.
The index edged up to 54.8 in January from 54.7 in December, helped by the government's stimulus programmes; visa facilitation for tourists from China, Kazakhstan, India and Taiwan, along with the extension of stay for foreigners in Thailand; an increase of foreign tourist arrivals; higher farmer income following a price rise for most agricultural products; stabilised diesel prices; and growing exports.
The UTCC also surveyed spending for the Valentine's Day period, which is estimated at 2.52 billion baht, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year.
This marks the highest expenditure in five years. Average spending per person increased to 2,125 baht from 1,847 baht in the previous year.