Asia-Pacific countries need to emphasise productivity improvement and innovation to deal with the pressures of the climate crisis and a volatile market, says the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The region's growing population and rising per person income will drive demand for food and food commodities from now to 2030, intensifying resource pressure, FAO chief economist Máximo Torero said at the organisation's recent regional conference for Asia and the Pacific in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
The population in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow by 193 million by 2030, while the global population is expected to slow as China's population declines, he said.
The region's average per person income growth rate from now until 2030 is expected to be 1.4% per year, with projected inflation rates slowing over the next decade. Urbanisation estimates project by 2030, 55% of the region's population will live in cities, contributing to dietary change and agri-food system transformation.
Rising income will be a significant driver of demand in low- and middle-income countries, whereas consumer preferences may be more important in the region's high-income countries, said Mr Torero.
"The main challenges facing the region relate to its ability to sustainably increase productivity and innovation, particularly in the face of resource limitations, climate change risks, and the region's growing population," he said.
The total value of agricultural and fish production in the region is projected to expand by 1.2% by 2030. The region remains a major contributor to global grain output, notably rice and wheat.
Global growth of agricultural production is expected to be 1.1% per year, driven by ongoing investments in technology, infrastructure and training, according to the group.
The FAO predicts rice consumption per person to begin declining regionally, with wheat consumption rising.
Meat consumption is expected to rise to 24 kilogrammes per person by 2030, with fish consumption increasing to 28 kg. Dairy consumption is forecast to increase by 20%, said the FAO.
The region is a major exporter, accounting for 20% of global agricultural exports, though it is the world's largest net importer of agricultural commodities, accounting for more than 40% of total imports.
Over the medium term, net imports will rise as demand outpaces supply, noted the agency.
Global trade in primary agricultural commodities and processed products is projected to grow in line with production over the next decade. Aside from conflict and geopolitical tensions, the most severe threat to the consumption of agricultural commodities and food is from persistently high inflation and a potential global recession, said the FAO.
Continued uncertainties could alter production decisions, limit input use and subsequently depress yield growth, eventually threatening global food security. In the longer term, climate change and environmental policies may cause market disruptions and reshape global patterns of production, noted the agency.
In addition, there are growing environmental and food safety concerns. Animal diseases such as African swine fever and avian influenza are among the most serious threats to the meat industry.
The FAO Strategic Framework 2022-31 outlines a systematic approach to accelerating regional countries' agri-food transformation initiatives, with a focus on integrating ecosystem restoration and biodiversity action to reduce disaster risks and build resilient communities.
The framework also addresses issues such as loss and damage accounting, risk understanding, resilience measurement for evidence-based action, and innovative financing.
To download the full FAO Strategic Framework 2022-31 report, visit https://www.fao.org/strategic-framework/en