The Commerce Ministry expects Thailand's export value in the first quarter this year to grow by 1-2%, driven by stable freight costs as shipments of major products such as rice, rubber, pet food, automobiles and electronics start to show signs of improvement.
Keerati Rushchano, commerce permanent secretary, said exports are expected to grow steadily as the manufacturing sector recovers amid resilience of major trading partners' economies, including the EU and Japan.
Agricultural exports performed well because of increased demand, though agro-industrial exports plummeted, attributed to the resurgence of the tourism sector, he said. Industrial product exports such as electronics continued to expand as the country transitions towards a digital economy, said Mr Keerati.
The ministry is collaborating with the private sector to expand markets for products from Thai small and medium-sized enterprises.
Moreover, drought is affecting agricultural crop supply, while geopolitical risks and exchange rate fluctuations pose additional challenges, said Mr Keerati.
"Despite a high base effect from the first quarter of last year, when Thai exports tallied US$28 billion, shipments continue to show resilience this month," he said.
The ministry is aiming for export growth of 1-2% for 2024, said Mr Keerati.
The harvest season for Thai fruit is expected to be delayed by one month to May. The ministry will continue to monitor the situation and implement necessary support measures accordingly, he said.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, said even though sea transport conditions are returning to normal, freight costs are still 1-2 times higher than typical levels.
Mr Chaichan said he expects exports in March will register $25.5-26.5 billion, lower than the $28 billion posted in the same month last year.
As a result, he said the export value for the first quarter is expected to be $71.5-72.5 billion, up 1-2%, with a second-quarter value of $71.6 billion attributed to flat freight prices and an uptick in confidence among major trading partners such as the EU and US, as reflected by the improving Purchasing Managers' Index.
Thai exports last month increased by 3.6% to $23.4 billion, while imports gained 3.2% to $23.9 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $554 million.