Entertainment complexes with gambling venues could generate 187 billion baht in revenue per year, or roughly 1% of Thailand's GDP, with the first complex projected to operate by fiscal 2029, says Maybank Securities.
The unit of Malaysia-based Maybank said the estimates are based on its gaming analyst's forecast and Thailand's tourist arrivals in 2019.
The proposed Thai casino tax rate of 17% is attractive compared with regional peers such as Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Macau, which charge a mass market rate varying from 25-40%, said tourism analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank.
The government plans to open entertainment complexes with hotels, malls and casinos. The prime minister said the cabinet is expected to finalise a draft bill for submission to parliament in the coming weeks.
"If approved, we expect the first such complex to open by fiscal 2029, as it will take at least three years for construction after the legislation is approved," Mr Boonyakorn said, noting Singapore's first casino took six years to open from the time it was proposed.
The proposal calls for 5-8 complexes to be constructed in several provinces. The first one could be located in the Eastern Economic Corridor, which offers business incentives to attract foreign direct investment.
The complexes are likely to supply thousands of hotel rooms, which are unlikely to be profitable, in order to attract gamblers, said Mr Boonyakorn. He said tourism should benefit from these complexes, but not in the early stages.
Maybank identified three beneficiary groups: contractors and banks during the construction phase; the property sector as prices rise; and commerce, hotels and airports supported by an uptick in foreign tourists.
Singapore's property prices rose by around 30% year-on-year in 2007 before the first casino opened in 2010, said Mr Boonyakorn.
"Airports of Thailand is likely the biggest beneficiary. Hoteliers with properties near these complexes are unlikely to benefit much from a potential hike in room rates," he said.
