Thailand expects to export 8.2 million tonnes of rice this year, up from a previous forecast of 7.5 million, helped by demand from major markets and a weakening baht, according to the Commerce Ministry.
Ronnarong Phoolpipat, director-general of the Foreign Trade Department, said rice exports during the first half of the year amounted to 5.08 million tonnes worth 117.8 billion baht, up 25.1% and 55.5% year-on-year, respectively.
"Rice importers want to import rice for consumption and to keep it as stock for food security," he said.
Furthermore, India's rice export restrictions and the depreciation of the baht to 36-37 per dollar are helping maintain the competitiveness of the price of Thai rice.
The department held a meeting on July 25 with the Thai Rice Exporters Association to discuss the rice export situation in the second half of the year.
Positive factors include continuing demand from the country's main export markets, including the Philippines and Indonesia, to alleviate the impact of inflation and drought.
The Philippines officially an‑ nounced a reduction in rice import taxes from 35% to 15%, effective as of early August this year and lasting until 2028.
Mr Ronnarong said this year the Philippines and Indonesia expect to increase their rice imports by up to 4.7 million tonnes and 3.6-4.3 million tonnes, respectively, presenting a promising opportunity for rice exporting countries, including Thailand.
There is also support from the amount of in-season rice production poised to be released to the market in this year's fourth quarter, which is expected to increase from the fourth quarter of 2023 due to an increase in rainfall for cultivation as the El Niño weather phenomenon has subsided.
As a result, the price of Thai rice is declining and becoming more competitive.
Mr Ronnarong said rice exports this year are likely to reach 8.2 million tonnes, with a value of US$4.5 billion or roughly 162 billion baht, surpassing the previous projection at the beginning of the year of 7.5 million tonnes.
Myriad risk factors still loom over Thai rice exports for the second half of this year, notably the possibility of India reviewing its rice export restrictions, increasing rice production in Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar and Cambodia, which could increase global supply leading to high price competition, and ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in shipping freight rates.
The Thai rice export situation is still going well as exporters are committed to delivering a large quantity of rice, particularly white rice, to main export markets within Asean including Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, as well as Africa and the Middle East.
Mr Ronnarong said the department is ready to work closely with relevant government and private sector entities, including the Thai Rice Exporters Association, to promote and boost rice exports.
Key activities planned for the remaining months of the year include the Thailand Rice Convention (TRC) 2024, a major international conference where experts from the global rice trade will convene to exchange information on the global market situation and engage in business negotiations.
Mobile TRC roadshows are expected to provide on-site information on global market trends to rice farmers, encouraging them to produce rice that aligns more closely with the market's demands, said Mr Ronnarong.
The department also has plans to strengthen relationships and expand the rice market in key markets such as South Africa, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines, as well as participating in several trade shows to promote Thai rice to the global market.