The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate steady at 2.5% on Wednesday, in line with the local economic recovery.
The MPC voted 6-1 to maintain the rate, with one member opting for a cut of 0.25 percentage points, said Piti Disyatat, the MPC secretary.
Mr Piti said the Thai economy is expected to expand as predicted, supported by tourism and domestic demand, with a gradual recovery in overall exports. Inflation is projected to return to the target range by the end of 2024.
"The inflation rate is expected to fall within the central bank's target range of 1-3% this year, potentially reaching the lower end next year," he said.
On Monday, the National Economic and Social Development Council reported GDP growth of 2.3% for the second quarter of 2024, consistent with the MPC's assessment.
This growth was primarily driven by tourism and domestic demand, though private consumption is expected to slow after a period of strong growth, said Mr Piti.
The MPC expects the Thai economy to continue growing in the second half of this year, with a growth rate of around 3% in the third quarter and 4% in the fourth quarter.
However, the growth momentum is expected to slow in the second half to around 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.2% in the first half, based on downside risks to the economy.
He said these downside risks stem from lower than expected domestic investment from both the public and private sectors, weaker growth in private consumption, and deteriorating asset quality in the banking sector.
"Given these downside risks, the MPC will continue to monitor the economic situation and comprehensive data to inform any future policy rate adjustments," said Mr Piti.
Non-performing loans in the banking industry are expected to rise but remain manageable. The increase in bad debt is partly related to the expiration of financial assistance measures implemented during the pandemic.
As a result, banks will need to devote more resources to managing bad debt, amid marginal new loan growth.
He said loans in the automotive and electronics sectors have declined because of structural challenges.
Similarly, small and medium-sized enterprise loans have contracted based on rising credit risks, while household loans have grown at a slower pace because of worsening credit quality.
This slowdown is partly attributed to the deteriorating debt serviceability of vulnerable households, resulting from a sluggish income recovery.
The MPC considers it crucial to monitor the impact of this credit quality deterioration on borrowing costs and overall credit growth, as it could disrupt economic activity, said Mr Piti.
He said if the new government opts for a cash handout scheme focusing on vulnerable groups, the budget may be smaller than for the digital wallet plan, potentially lowering the economic multiplier.
The committee will monitor any government stimulus measures, said Mr Piti.
Separately, caretaker Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Wednesday policy rate adjustments are the responsibility of the MPC.
He said interest rates are just one tool used to manage the economy, which is currently sluggish.
"Interest rates are tied to inflation, which is peculiar because even though Thailand's inflation is low, people still feel the cost of goods is rising," said Mr Pichai.
"It is the responsibility of relevant parties to take care of this and consider the matter carefully."