The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) is calling on the prime minister to set an annual average target of 5% export growth amid risk factors such as the baht's appreciation and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the TNSC, said exports are expected to rise by 1-2% to US$290 billion or 10 trillion baht this year as imports of capital goods increase, which will have a positive effect on exports from August to September.
The strength of the baht is expected to endure until the beginning of next year, as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, according to the council.
However, the TNSC said there are numerous uncertainties in the second half of 2024, including the baht's appreciation against the dollar, which would increase the prices of Thai exports compared with competitors; geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the Middle East; the imposition of import tariffs between the US and China that may cause Chinese products to flood into Asian markets; higher freight and surcharge costs; and ongoing US labour disputes that may halt production and affect supply chains in the manufacturing sector.
Moreover, small and medium-sized shippers are facing a liquidity shortage for manufacturing output meant for export, Mr Chaichan said.
The TNSC proposes the government adopt a "trading nation" strategy to grow Thailand's economy by focusing on international trade and investment.
The council recommended the government restructure exports not only to achieve the goal of becoming a trading nation by 2032, but also to support Thailand's export competitiveness and continued growth, aiming to reach export growth of 5% per year on average.
"Exporters should be encouraged to upskill or reskill to ensure they keep up with the rapidly changing business landscape," he said.
The TNSC will propose an eight-year strategic plan to become a trading nation to the new government to be implemented from the beginning of next year, said Mr Chaichan.
He said exports are expected grow by at least 2% in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, shipments picked to expand strongly include rubber, car tyres and pet food, according to the council.
The recent strengthening of the baht did not affect exports in the short term as they had already been settled, said Mr Chaichan.
"However, it will affect exporters in terms of profit," he said.