RECAP: Most Asian markets advanced on Friday, helped by encouraging signs in China's economy and a retreat in the US dollar, while inflation data supported the case for another Federal Reserve rate cut.
The Thai bourse, however, continued its decline, again slipping below 1,450 points. The SET index moved in a range of 1,436.79 and 1,465.29 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,442.63, down 1.5% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 47.89 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 5.39 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 3.31 billion, followed by brokerage firms at 2.05 billion and institutional investors at 29 million baht.
NEWSMAKERS: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said strong US economic growth would allow policymakers to take their time deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates, amid concerns that policies of a new Republican government would stoke inflation.
- US consumer inflation in October was 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in September but in line with expectations. Producer prices edged up 0.2%, another sign that progress towards lower inflation was stalling.
- Japan's economy grew by 0.9% year-on-year in the three months to September, the second straight quarter of expansion, reflection solid consumer spending on the back of a one-off income tax cut and higher summer bonuses.
- China's economy showed some encouraging signs as retail sales in October grew 4.8%, the most in eight months, while industrial output rose 5.3%. October inflation was 0.3%, meeting market expectations but slowing from September. But producer prices fell 2.9%, reflecting weak demand despite stimulus measures.
- New loan issuance in China slowed in October to 500 billion yuan, from 1.6 trillion in September, pressured by low private sector funding demand and declining profitability.
- China has announced temporary anti-dumping measures against European brandy, in a move seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
- Chinese EV sales reached yet another milestone as annual production volume surpassed 10 million units, up 4.3% year-on-year, amid mounting worries about overcapacity.
- The Southeast Asian super-app Grab raised its earnings forecast after quarterly profit topped estimates, helped by cost cuts. It now predicts up to US$313 million in full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, versus $270 million forecast earlier.
- Shopee, the e-commerce arm of Sea Ltd, reported its first quarterly profit, a sign it is holding its own against bigger Chinese rivals in Southeast Asia. Net profit for Singapore-based Sea as a whole topped estimates at US$153.3 million in the three months to Sept 30.
- The US government has reportedly ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to stop supplying advanced AI-related chips to Chinese customers, after finding TSMC chips in AI processors used by Huawei, which is subject to US sanctions.
- Bitcoin hit a record high above $93,000 on Wednesday as expectations of further US rate cuts added to the impetus from president-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance, but eased back to $87,000 on Friday.
- Shares of Tesla Inc, powered by billionaire founder Elon Musk's full-throated support for Donald Trump, have soared by 34% since Trump's election win, lifting the company's market capitalisation by $250 billion.
- Seven & i Holdings, the Japan-based 7-Eleven operator, is considering a management buyout with funding from banks and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth $58 billion, in a bid to avoid a takeover by Canadian rival Couche-Tard.
- Malaysia's economy expanded as expected in the third quarter, with year-on-year growth 5.3% on a surge in investments and domestic spending, official data showed on Friday.
- The Thai baht depreciated to a three-month low at below 35 to the dollar on Thursday following a surge in the value of the greenback and continuous outflows from Thai stock and bond markets.
- The government insists the decision is not yet official, but former finance minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong has reportedly been selected as the chairman of the Bank of Thailand board, sparking fierce debate over his potential influence on policy.
- Fitch Ratings has maintained Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ Stable, citing a balance between a strong financial sector and robust macroeconomic policies.
- Google forecasts Thailand's digital economy will be worth $46 billion in 2024, making it the second largest and fastest-growing country in Southeast Asia (after the Philippines), driven by e-commerce growth and online tourism.
- The SET-listed telecom carrier Jasmine International Plc has outbid incumbent True Corp and agreed to pay as much as US$560 million for rights to broadcast English Premier League football from 2025-28, seeking to attract customers to its streaming business.
- The Thai consumer confidence index reached 56.0 in October, rising for the first time in 8 months, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce reported.
- The Industrial Confidence Index in October improved in October to 89.1 after floods subsided, also helped by benefits from the 10,000-baht handout raising sales, and lower bank interest rates.
- The cabinet has approved two more stimulus measures: a 15-billion-baht credit scheme to help low-income earners resolve informal debt, and 55 billion baht for loans to buy, build, renovate or repair homes to stimulate the real estate sector.
- The Thai Hotels Association said its October confidence survey showed an improved outlook with a 58% occupancy rate. The fourth-quarter index is expected to improve with cool weather and the New Year high season.
- The Energy Regulatory Commission is looking into the legal aspects of a small modular reactor project this month to prepare Thailand for using nuclear energy, amid a decline in domestic gas supply and uncertainty surrounding Thai-Cambodian talks on joint offshore production.
COMING UP: Euro zone trade figures will be announced Monday, followed by euro zone inflation and Japanese trade figures on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring UK inflation and a European Central Bank financial stability review. On Thursday, the US will announce updated jobless claims and home sales, and Japan will release an inflation update. On Friday, Germany will report quarterly GDP, and the UK and US will release purchasing managers index updates.
- Domestically, the National Economic and Social Development Council on Monday will report official third-quarter GDP. On Tuesday, the Economic Stimulus Committee will discuss household debt challenges, and the Association of Investment Management Companies will hold a briefing on the ThaiESG Fund.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities says the second phase of the 10,000-baht digital handout, expected to be approved early next year for targeted seniors, will be positive for retail, hire-purchase and agricultural-food stocks, among them TU, CPF, CBG, SAPPE, SNNP, ICHI, NSL, M, CPALL, CRC, BJC, HMPRO, COM7, MTC, SAWAD, TIDLOR and BAM.
- InnovestX Securities sees AMATA and WHA as beneficiaries of a new Trump administration, as higher US tariffs on Chinese imports will prompt manufacturing relocation to Southeast and other parts of Asia. CP, AOT and MINT would benefit from a cut in US corporate tax, resulting in higher purchasing power and dollar appreciation.
- InnovestX also recommends stocks with high dividend yields and expected to be targets of the Vayupak and tax-deductible funds (SSF, RMF and ThaiESG) and with following characteristics: dividend yield of at least 3.5%, high SETESG ratings and earnings expected. Interesting stocks are BBL, ADVANC, HMPRO and BCP, but buy on dips as prices have already moved up.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Asia Plus Securities sees support at 1,440 points and resistance at 1,465. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,430 and resistance at 1,465.
