The Commerce Ministry predicts headline inflation for 2024 will be between 0.2% and 0.8%, with a midpoint of 0.5%.
Headline inflation next year is forecast to be 0.3-1.3%, attributed to an improving economy and rising diesel prices.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said the projection for 2025 is driven by three key factors.
First, Thailand's economy is projected to improve in 2025, influenced by growth in both private investment and consumption. The continued growth in tourist arrivals is expected to hike demand for goods and services.
Second, the price ceiling of diesel at 33 baht per litre is higher than the average price of the first and second quarters of 2024.
Lastly, public spending should increase because of the 10,000-baht digital wallet project.
Limiting factors that could slow inflation include government initiatives aimed at reducing living costs, particularly electricity and liquefied petroleum gas prices.
The base price of fresh fruit and vegetables in 2024 was elevated because of the El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena, according to TPSO. As for 2025, the weather outlook is anticipated to be less severe, having a minimal impact on prices.
There could be a slowdown in the real estate and domestic automotive sectors, resulting in limited growth in housing rents and car prices, noted the office.
Modest increases in the prices of essential goods are expected because of a downward trend in key cost factors such as interest rates and global oil prices.
Mr Poonpong said if economic circumstances change, headline inflation will be reconsidered.
The ministry reported the consumer price index (CPI) in November was 108.5, up from 107.5 year-on-year, while headline inflation increased by 0.95%.
The main factor was rising diesel prices, resulting from the low base price the previous year. The prices of food and beverage items also increased, notably fresh fruit, food components and non-alcoholic beverages.
Other goods and services did not have a significant impact on inflation.
The average CPI in the first 11 months increased 0.32% year-on-year.
Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, accelerating from 0.77% in October. The average the first 11 months was 0.55%.
Mr Poonpong said the inflation rate for December is projected to rise between 1.2% and 1.3%, attributed to the surge in diesel prices, particularly in the southern region, along with a decrease in fresh vegetable supply because of flooding in the area.
As a result, consumers remain cautious with their spending, focusing primarily on essential items because the economy has not fully recovered.