S&P Global Ratings has maintained Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ and expects the Thai economy to grow by 2.8% this year and 3.1% next year.
According to Patchara Anuntasilpa, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office, S&P reaffirmed Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ and retained its stable outlook for the country's credibility, which is tied to the management of public debt.
S&P predicts the Thai economy will recover from modest 1.9% growth in 2023, supported by stimulus measures and a rebound in the tourism sector.
The budget deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to average 3.3% from 2025-2026. The government is anticipated to continue prioritising investments aligned with national strategies, including projects within the Eastern Economic Corridor and transport infrastructure development.
Public-private partnerships are expected to play an increasingly significant role in driving infrastructure investment projects. These sustained investments are projected to enhance Thailand's economic competitiveness in the long term.
The net government debt-to-GDP figure is projected to rise by 3.3% in 2025, partly attributed to stimulus measures such as the 10,000-baht cash handout, noted S&P. This handout policy is expected to increase private sector consumption.
The foreign financial sector remains robust, with a current account surplus of 1.4% in 2023.
From 2024 to 2027, the current account surplus is forecast to average 2.3%, driven by the recovery in the services sector and continuous growth in tourism.
This recovery is expected to support economic growth over the next two years. From January to October 2024, more than 28.8 million foreign tourists visited Thailand, with numbers expected to continue increasing, bolstered by government measures such as visa exemptions for entry into the country.
According to Mr Patchara, factors S&P will monitor in assessing Thailand's credit rating include the country's economic growth compared with other countries with similar income levels, per capita income and domestic political stability.