The Export-Import Bank of Thailand (Exim Bank) projects exports to grow by 3% both this year and next, marking the first time in six years that export growth has achieved this level.
According to Rak Vorrakitpokatorn, president of Exim Bank, Thailand's economy in 2025 will continue to be driven by recovering domestic demand, supported by government spending, investment and consumption, along with sustained international demand in tourism and exports.
This growth is underpinned by a continuous global economic expansion, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, matching 2024, and global trade growth of 3.4%, exceeding the 10-year average of about 2.8%.
High-potential markets include emerging economies such as India, CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam), the Asean-5 countries and the Middle East, with expected economic growth rates of 6.5%, 5.3%, 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
Exports in 2025 are also expected to grow by 3%, according to Mr Rak.
Popular exports in global markets include electronics, agricultural and food products, and lifestyle goods such as cosmetics and pet food.
However, critical factors which warrant monitoring include geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, which could cause fluctuations in freight rates and oil prices, currency volatility and a potential new trade war (Trade War 2.0) driven by proposed import tax hikes by US President-elect Donald Trump.
According to Mr Rak, as a specialised financial institution under the supervision of the Finance Ministry, Exim Bank is committed to leading Thai entrepreneurs into international trade and investment markets.
The bank will promote exports and investments in sectors in which Thailand has strong potential, aligning with global consumer trends.
These include food for security such as canned tuna, processed chicken, sugar, and canned sardines; "good for the planet" eco-friendly products like polylactic acid (PLA) bioplastics and solar panels which are gaining global popularity; and "mood for joy" products and services that deliver happiness or unique experiences, such as pet food, silver jewellery, cosmetics, soap, skincare products, and wellness tourism, which is thriving.
Additionally, Mr Rak said air-conditioners and transformers are poised for growth in 2025 due to US policies that may increase import taxes on products from China and other countries, potentially allowing Thailand to regain market share in the US.
Regarding the influx of Chinese products in global markets, Mr Rak emphasised that Thai businesses should not compete directly in areas where they cannot match Chinese competitiveness.
Instead, they should focus on strengthening sectors where they have an edge, such as pet food, silver jewellery, air-conditioners and cosmetics.
On the subject of Thai SMEs, he said it is essential for them to integrate into China's supply chain.
To handle this challenge, Exim Bank has established a Business Development Unit to assist SMEs in entering China's supply chain.
Additionally, the bank has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to provide financing for Thai SMEs aiming to participate in this supply chain.
Chinese consumers are not exclusively interested in purchasing locally-made products, remaining the leading spenders on Thai goods. However, Thai producers need to adapt by optimising production processes to lower costs and remain competitive in the market.
In a related development, Mr Rak said Exim Bank is introducing a new initiative to guarantee corporate bonds for companies seeking to raise funds through bond issuance.
The bank also plans to engage in managing foreign funds which are aimed at financing or providing grants to businesses that address environmental issues.
For example, in Australia, where extensive mining activities result in high carbon emissions, there is a growing need to acquire carbon credits to offset these emissions. Exim Bank will play a role in managing these funds by identifying businesses in need of financing or potentially participating in syndicated loans to support such initiatives.
As of the end of November, Exim Bank reported outstanding loans and commitments of 179 billion baht, with expectations that they will exceed 190 billion baht by year-end, a 6.8% increase from around 177 billion baht at the end of 2023.
The bank's non-performing loan ratio is expected to drop to 3.49%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous year, due to close credit quality monitoring. Exim Bank anticipates achieving a net profit exceeding 1 billion baht by the end of this year.