Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (ESU) predicts Thai GDP growth of 3% next year as the global economy expands 3.2%, amid risks of a potential trade war and accelerated inflation.
Economist Methas Rattanasorn said increasing public and private investments, a recovery in tourism and accommodative monetary policy should drive the Thai economy to grow 3% in 2025, higher than the 2.8% expected for this year.
However, there are many risk factors, including a trade war, geopolitical conflicts, as well as uncertainties in oil prices and inflation.
He said although the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2%, US trade protectionism could affect the global supply chain.
In addition, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war remain unsettled, affecting energy prices and possibly pushing inflation to rise, said Mr Methas.
Moreover, many developed countries may reduce their budget deficits due to high debt burdens, which will slow economic growth.
Yet developing countries in Asia continue to prosper based on electronics and artificial intelligence industry growth.
Tisco ESU expects the Bank of Thailand to cut the policy interest rate next year by 25 basis points to 2% to support economic growth.
However, the Thai economy still faces risk factors, such as persistently high household debt, declining credit quality, and the US-China trade war, he said.
Komsorn Prakobphol, head of Tisco ESU, said the outlook for oil prices and debt instruments in 2025 still has an upside. The price of WTI crude oil is expected to remain around US$80 a barrel due to limited production increases from both Opec+ and other major producers.
Gold could also increase if geopolitical conflicts intensify, global interest rates decline and the US dollar weakens, according to the think tank.
"The global stock market in 2025 may face pressure from trade and inflation policies, but we still see stocks as an attractive asset for investment. We recommend US consumer discretionary and financial stocks that are likely to grow from tax cuts and economic stimulus policies," said Mr Komsorn.
Japanese stocks should also benefit from a growing economy and lower trade war risks. The Thai bourse remains pressured by unclear listed company earnings and the state-owned Vayupak Fund used up much of its funds, while investments in Thai ESG Funds have been meagre, he said.
"We recommend investors diversify portfolios to global and alternative assets based on their risk appetite, monitoring US economic policies that could affect global fund mobility," said Mr Komsorn.