Exports and tourism are expected to continue supporting Thailand's economy, but the automotive industry remains a key area of concern, according to the Finance Ministry.
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said that economic indicators for private sector consumption in November show signs of improvement compared to the corresponding period last year. However, the consumption of durable goods, particularly in the automotive sector, remains sluggish.
The value-added tax (VAT) at constant prices in November grew by 1.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.6% from the previous month after seasonal adjustments. This aligns with the Consumer Confidence Index for November, which rose to 56.9 from 56.0 in October, supported by the 2024 economic stimulus projects targeting welfare cardholders and people with a disability, along with continuous growth in exports and tourism.
Real agricultural income in November increased by 8% year-on-year. However, the consumption of durable goods in the automotive sector remains weak, reflected by a decline in new passenger cars and motorcycles in November, which decreased by 30.1% and 4.5%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the figures also declined from the previous month by 0.9% and 0.1%, respectively.
According to Mr Pornchai, economic indicators for private investment also show signs of a slowdown, with private investment in machinery and equipment as reflected by the volume of imported capital goods decreasing by 5.1% in November compared to the same period last year, and dropping by 6.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month.
The number of newly registered commercial vehicles also fell by 20.7% year-on-year and by 5.6% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment.
But private investment in construction, as seen by domestic cement sales, expanded by 17.8% in November compared to the same period last year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.
Meanwhile, real estate transaction taxes declined by 0.6% in November compared to the same period last year and contracted by 4.5% month-on-month after seasonal adjustments.
On the export front, Mr Pornchai said the value of merchandise exports grew in November from the same period of last year.
The total export value of goods in US dollars in November stood at US$25.6 billion, an increase of 8.2% compared to the same period last year.
Excluding the value of oil, oil-related products, gold, and military items, exports grew by 7%, driven by the expansion of goods in the categories of computers, accessories and components, air-conditioners and components, and machinery and parts, which expanded by 40.8%, 35.8% and 16.7%, respectively.
Additionally, fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits, along with pet food and rubber, recorded growth rates of 44.8%, 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively.
However, exports of refined sugar, rice, and tapioca products declined. When analysing the value of exports in Thailand's major trading markets, growth was observed in India (31.6%), Indochina (21%), China (16.9%) and the US (9.5%). On the other hand, exports to Japan and Hong Kong contracted by 3.7% and 9.9%, respectively.
According to Mr Pornchai, Thailand welcomed 3.15 million international tourists in November, a 19.5% increase year-on-year, with the majority coming from China, Malaysia, India, South Korea and Russia.
Meanwhile the agricultural sector, as reflected by the Agricultural Production Index, expanded by 1.3% in November compared to the same period last year. After seasonal adjustments, the sector also increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month.
Additionally, Mr Pornchai said that the Industrial Confidence Index rose to 91.4 in November, up from 89.1 in October. This rise was driven by several positive factors, including heightened production by manufacturers to meet growing domestic and international orders in preparation for year-end festive sales, economic stimulus programmes for 2024 aimed at welfare cardholders and people with disabilities, and the continued expansion of the tourism sector.
Overall economic stability remains strong, as reflected by a headline inflation rate of 0.95% and core inflation of 0.8% in November.
As of the end of October, the public debt-to-GDP ratio was 64%, remaining within the fiscal discipline framework set by the State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act.