2025 is just around the corner and everyone is looking for clues about the prospects for the global and domestic economies in the coming year.With Donald Trump set to return to the White House on Jan 20, the US factors seem difficult to predict given the personality of the President-elect billionaire we all learned from his first term.But something the world can expect is growing US protectionism, through the proposed import tax hike Trump has clearly announced; countermeasures from the targeted countries, notably China, would put the global economy on the verge of turmoil.Amid the uncertainties and challenges ahead, the Bangkok Post has identified five megatrends for 2025.Let's hear from experts about their potential development in the year to come so we can at least prepare ourselves for what could be another tough year.
Pressure to address needs of the elderly
Thailand is experiencing a rapid demographic shift towards an ageing population, leading to widespread impacts such as a shrinking workforce, rising financial demands for elderly care, greater care-giving responsibilities for the working-age population, reduced national consumption capacity, and a need for adequate housing solutions for the elderly.
According to data from the National Statistical Office, in 2019 the over-60s accounted for 18% of the total population, surpassing the number of children for the first time, which accounted for only 16%.
Thailand became an "aged society" in 2005 when the elderly reached 10% of the total population. In 2024, Thailand transitioned to a "complete aged society", with elderly people making up more than 20% of the population.
By 2031, Thailand is projected to become a "super aged society", with the elderly constituting more than 28% of the population.
Given these prospects, the private sector has urged the government to speed up the implementation of tax measures to support efforts to address the impacts, particularly on housing projects for the elderly.
Gengpong Tanaroonsanti, president of the Senior Health Service and Trade Association, said the ideal for elderly housing is to allow seniors to stay in their own homes within the community they have lived in since their youth for as long as possible. However, as people age, they may need to modify their homes to make them safer and more suitable for them.
As seniors age, their lifestyle may shift from being socially active to spending more time at home or in bed. This highlights the growing need for innovative housing models, such as high-quality elderly care centres, Dr Gengpong noted.
The Public Health and Commerce ministries are working to regulate and oversee the elderly care centres. Quality centres will help address societal needs, whether for specialised care groups, such as post-surgery, bedridden, or Alzheimer's patients.
The number of such centres remains far from sufficient, and if only those that meet quality standards for addressing the complex healthcare needs of the elderly are taken into account, the number will be even lower.
There are 2,000 to 3,000 centres in the market, but only about 800 are registered with the Public Health Ministry.
Regarding elderly care, according to Dr Gengpong, the ultimate goal is to establish national standards, similar to ISO or HA standards used in hospitals, to build consumer confidence.
Additionally, the future may see the inclusion of life insurance or health insurance to cover elderly individuals who need medical care, such as knee surgery, with benefits that can be claimed.
Dr Gengpong said that establishing an elderly care centre requires a substantial investment. For a centre with standards, including proper care, environmental management, infection control, and room design, around 30 rooms would require a minimum investment of 20 million baht, which is considered medium-sized.
He proposed to the government there should be a "filial piety tax" incentive. If a care centre provides high-quality services and citizens place their parents there, they should be able to deduct these expenses from their taxes. This would encourage people to care for their parents properly.
Furthermore, if the government could make this business VAT-exempt, it would help support this type of industry, similar to how hospitals are VAT-exempt. The association is currently in discussions with the Revenue Department, which agrees with the principle, according to Dr Gengpong.
Agentic AI set to surge in 2025
Agentic AI is a top strategic technology trend for 2025 that organisations need to explore, says global IT research firm Gartner Inc.
Unlike current AI, which responds to prompts, agentic AI has the autonomy to execute tasks, solve problems over extended periods, and handle complex workflows with little to no human intervention, according to Dell.
In 2025, AI will no longer be a separate technology. It will be the thread weaving through every innovation, redefining industries and reshaping humanity's role in the workforce, said John Roese, Dell's global chief technology officer and chief AI officer.
He said agentic AI will be the defining advancement in AI technology and a catalyst for significant progress in how to approach AI architecturally.
"These new architectures will enable capabilities beyond traditional reactive AI, fostering profound advancements in problem-solving and automation," said Mr Roese.
Agentic AI is a top strategic technology trend for 2025 that organisations need to explore, says global IT research firm Gartner Inc.
Gartner predicts that by 2028, at least 15% of day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously through agentic AI, up from 0% in 2024.
Voranuch Dejakaisaya, executive chairman of Kasikorn Business-Technology Group (KBTG), the technology arm of Kasikornbank, told the Bangkok Post that the company's vision is centred on leveraging AI to improve efficiencies and maximise returns on its technology investments.
A key component of KBTG's strategy is the agentic AI model, coordinating with other AI systems to carry out more complex tasks, said Ms Voranuch.
Economy nearing its potential
Exports remain a key driver of Thailand's economy in 2025, with key product categories expected to thrive including agricultural goods, processed foods, electrical appliances and components, as well as vehicles and parts.
The economy is gradually recovering, nearing its potential. The economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, close to Thailand's average economic potential of 3.2%.
According to Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), the economy suffered during the pandemic in 2020-21.
In 2020, economic growth contracted by 6.1% due to disruptions in economic activities aimed at controlling the pandemic. The economy slowly rebounded in 2021, with a modest growth of 1.5%.
The slow recovery caused Thailand to lag many countries in the region. However, signs of accelerated recovery have emerged following the formation of an elected government, which has driven public spending and introduced stimulus measures through the government's digital wallet scheme. As a result, the economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024.
Policymakers such as the FPO view Thailand's economic outlook for 2025 as a gradual recovery. This recovery is supported by tourism returning to near pre-Covid levels, a steady improvement in domestic consumption and export growth driven by the recovery of trading partners' economies, alongside public spending normalising.
Nevertheless, economic growth still faces challenges from external factors, such as global economic uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts and inflation issues in several countries.
Internal factors also pose challenges, particularly high household debt levels and declining income among certain groups.
The government has introduced various measures to support the recovery and mitigate the impact on residents and businesses.
Tourism in 2025 is forecast to continue its robust recovery, with an estimated 39 million international visitors, up 8.3% from 2024 and close to the figures seen before Covid-19.
The recovery is primarily driven by increased arrivals from Asia, particularly China, Malaysia, South Korea and India, generating projected tourism revenue of 1.86 trillion baht.
Exports remain a key driver of Thailand's economy, with a projected growth of 3.1% in 2025, particularly in key product categories such as agricultural goods, processed foods, electrical appliances and components, as well as vehicles and parts.
This growth is supported by improved economic conditions among trading partners, easing inflation, potential interest rate cuts and China's stimulus measures.
Thailand is also working to expand trade opportunities through negotiations with new markets in the Middle East and Africa and accelerating free trade agreements, particularly with the eurozone, to enhance competitiveness and elevate the quality of Thai products.
Public spending is expected to return to normal in 2025 following delays in budget approvals in 2024. The 2025 budget, amounting to 3.75 trillion baht, is projected to achieve a total disbursement of 3.5 trillion baht, equivalent to 93.3%.
Accelerated disbursements are expected to inject funds into the economy more quickly and efficiently, particularly in the construction sector.
According to Mr Pornchai, the economy is projected to grow by an average of 3% in 2025, aligning closer to Thailand's economic potential range of 2.7-3.7%, with a midpoint of 3.2%.
He said achieving full growth potential requires the implementation of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies aligned with the economic cycle and consistent policy implementation.
Mr Pornchai said it is essential to attract private sector investments in technology industries, which will enhance Thailand's economic potential and competitiveness in the region.
The government is committed to supporting these investments and prioritising essential infrastructure development to unlock Thailand's full economic potential and ensure sustainable growth, he said.