The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) upgraded its Thai export growth forecast for 2024 to 5% following a robust performance in December.
Chaichan Charoensuk, chairman of the TNSC, said Thai exports last month were estimated to rise by more than 4.5%, surpassing expectations. This improvement was attributed to collaborations among relevant sectors.
TNSC projects modest growth of 1-3% for 2025.
However, the council identified several key risks that require careful attention.
Trade tensions during the second term of US President Donald Trump could lead to trade policy uncertainty, affecting the global and Thai economies both positively and negatively, noted TNSC.
US stimulus initiatives, such as increasing domestic investment and corporate tax reductions, may lead to an overheated American economy, elevate inflation, and could prompt the Federal Reserve to scale back its rate cut projections from four to two cuts this year, according to the council.
The potential easing or removal of strict environmental regulations worldwide could further complicate trade dynamics.
Mr Chaichan warned that geopolitical tensions such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea and related military confrontations, prolonged Middle Eastern conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine war all pose additional risks.
Currency volatility, particularly fluctuations in the baht caused by internal inflationary pressures and US trade policies, add to these concerns.
Exporters must confront higher labour costs, which affects production and logistics expenses, he said.
Moreover, volatility in global oil and energy prices, elevated freight rates from increased exports to the US and ongoing issues in the Red Sea affecting exports to the EU and the Middle East also present challenges.
"Thailand recorded positive export outcomes in 2024. This year, exporters will confront tougher conditions," said Mr Chaichan.
"We project export growth of 1-3% in the first quarter because momentum remains positive. However, we need to monitor developments in the second quarter after Trump takes office on Jan 20."
He said key export products driving growth this year will include food and electronic components, while there are concerns about the performance of rice, cassava, automobiles and auto parts.
To bolster exports, the council suggests quarterly joint committee meetings between the public and private sectors under the Commerce Ministry to address trade volatility.
The government should allocate more funding for trade activities with both major trading partners and emerging markets to minimise trade risks and mitigate market distortions from US trade measures, according to TNSC.
The council said these efforts will enable Thailand to achieve export growth of 2-3% this year.