Border trade sentiment is positive, with anticipated border export value surpassing 1 trillion baht, up 6.9% year-on-year, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the UTCC, presented the results of the initial Foreign Border Trade Sentiment Index, conducted this month with 327 respondents, including 65.7% from provincial chambers of commerce and 34.3% from trade associations.
The index measures sentiment across three periods: monthly, six months in advance and 12 months in advance.
Scores are interpreted on a scale where above 50 indicates growth in border trade, 50 indicates stability and below 50 indicates a decline.
The short-term index was 49.5, with the agricultural sector scoring the lowest at 48.7, the agro-industrial business sector at 49.5 and the industrial sector at 50.1.
The medium-term index was 52.8 with the agricultural sector at 51.1, the agro-industrial sector at 53.4 and the industrial sector at 52.3.
For the outlook 12 months in the future, the index was 63.6 with the agricultural sector at 58.4, the agro-industial sector at 64.7 and the industrial sector at 66.3.
Countries with an index of more than 50 indicate robust growth in border trade, including Malaysia, Laos and southern China.
Countries scoring less than 50 signal slower growth, comprising Myanmar, Cambodia and Singapore.
Mr Thanavath said in the short term, businesses remain cautious, resulting in an index of less than 50.
However, confidence rose for the medium and long term, with scores above 50 reflecting expectations of improved border trade conditions, he said.
This optimism is attributed to economic growth in neighbouring countries, high demand for quality Thai goods, improved trade infrastructure and strengthened regional cooperation, said Mr Thanavath.
"This year, border trade with Malaysia, Laos and southern China is expected to stand out," he said.
The border and transit export value is expected to be 1.05-1.07 trillion baht this year, a growth of 5.4-6.9% year-on-year.
Import value is projected to tally 831-865 billion baht, up 8.8-10.3% year-on-year.
Mr Thanavath said to bolster border trade, several checkpoints including Huai Ton Nun in Mae Hong Son should be upgraded to permanent crossings.
The government should also promote business matching activities and assist businesses in accessing low-interest rate funding sources, he said.