Local mobile operators are likely to see flat service revenue growth in 2016 as social networks eat into mobile voice and data markets.
Einstein: Income likely to peak in 2015
To survive, operators must seek new revenue sources and diversify into other businesses, said Marc Einstein, industry principal in the ICT practice of Frost & Sullivan, a global consultancy.
"Local operators will have the potential opportunity to enjoy strong revenue growth from mobile data services until 2015, thanks to the migration from 2G to 3G networks," he said.
After that, operators will probably face revenue declines stemming from the popularity of Line, WhatsApp and similar messaging applications.
Mr Einstein said Japanese mobile giant NTT DoCoMo reported a 40% decline in average revenue per voice user for two years in a row.
Operators in Thailand are facing the same fate, with average revenue per postpaid user dipping 15.5% from 2008-13. Average revenue per prepaid user fell by 2.3%.
Minutes usage from mobile phones is gradually declining, especially among postpaid users, thanks to the launch of Line's social messaging app in 2011.
Thailand's data traffic growth is expect to surge by 30 times in the 10 years to 2020.
Mr Einstein, a fourth-generation descendant of Albert Einstein, suggests local operators expand into mobile broadband services such as banking and shopping to generate new revenue streams. Big data and analytics are other potential revenue sources.
Teera Kanokkanjanarat, senior industry analyst at Frost & Sullivan (Thailand), said the average Thai will use one gigabyte of mobile content a day by 2018, up from 15 megabytes a day now.
Mr Einstein reckons the average Thai will soon have seven internet-connected devices on a single data tariff plan.
He said the Android operating system will remain the most popular platform, with half the global market share. Android is expected to post a compound growth rate of 36% during 2013-17, with Apple's iOS at 39% and Microsoft's Windows Mobile at 88.4%.
The number of smartphone users in Thailand could reach 40 million by 2017, up from 15 million in 2013. Tablet users could reach 20 million by 2017, up from 5 million this year.
Mr Einstein said Thailand's adoption of fixed-line broadband still lags in the region. In South Korea, broadband uptake is 40%.
The average speed of fixed broadband in Thailand is 4.5 Mbps, ranking 51st globally and mid-tier in Asia-Pacific.
Mr Einstein recommends a national broadband master plan to aggressively expand the county's fibre optics to home infrastructure.
He said the fragile political climate is challenging Thai telecom firms as they move forward with spectrum reallocation and new licence auctions.