At the risk of sounding merciless, the sorrowful images we see on television — of falling bodies, fallen soldiers and failed peace efforts — are only one side of the sad story of terrorism.
What the TV screen does not show you is the economic impact of the war on terror: the evil shadows of debt, inflation, lost opportunities, displacement, increased security costs and higher defence budgets that have been tightening the noose around Pakistani families. So many have been affected in many ways, losing wage-earners to bomb blasts, hemmed in by army deployment in their communities, or idled by strikes called as a protest against the lack of security.
The aftermath of any such event follows a typical pattern: live coverage on dozens of TV channels of the site of the blast, hostage-taking, firing incident as the case may be, complete with eyewitness accounts of how it all unfolded.
What follows are emotional scenes of civilians in distress — of blood everywhere and flesh strewn about, of the wounded being shifted to ambulances on stretchers, of the dead being offloaded at the hospital, of relatives mourning the loss of loved ones, of people desperately looking for the missing, and of mass funerals.
Then come the scenes showing opposition politicians condemning the incident, of the government vowing (yet again) to catch the terrorists, and the inevitable announcement of a commission of inquiry, which analysts on talk shows immediately condemn as useless.
Facebook posts and Twitter feeds and forwarded mobile SMS alerts follow, urging people to rise up for change and put a stop to the atrocities once and for all. The hullabaloo then dies down until the next outrage, when the same cycle is repeated ad nauseam.
What is not telecast is what happens after each of these events: the family of a victim in ever-rising debt because of the death of the sole breadwinner; the taxi driver struggling to put together two square meals for his family because he cannot drive anymore after losing his legs in an explosion; the children being pushed into exploitative labour because the family’s wage-earning adult lost his job when the hotel chain closed its operations in Pakistan due to the security risks.
Nor do the TV newscasts show us the old, ailing father of the dead teenager, still waiting for the promised government compensation announced for victims; the young widow spending from her meagre savings to meet the costs of boarding, lodging, medicines, and local transport in a bigger city where her husband — another blast-injured civilian — is being treated in the burn unit of the government hospital; the financial damage incurred by a displaced family of 10, refugees in their own country after migrating to another province because of military action in their area.
It is often said of love that the more you give, the more it multiplies. Sadly, the scientific principles of economics defy such magic. It is impossible to quantify the loss of hope and the immensity of pain ensuing from the death of a loved one. It is also not easy to quantify the sense of achievement and positive impact in the lives of (especially) female students had there been no bombings of their schools by terrorists.
Instead, these mothers of tomorrow sit at home in fear, losing the opportunity of bettering their own lives and that of the next generation, their childhoods disrupted, their hearts and souls burdened beyond their years.
It is possible, however, to cold-heartedly compute the economic worth of an individual’s life. Insurance companies do it all the time. Based on the same, one can calculate the current and potential financial loss suffered by a family unit due to a member’s death or injury.
According to official sources, during the last 13 years, the direct and indirect costs incurred due to incidents of terror in Pakistan exceed $100 billion.
According to a senior economist, the national annual financial cost of the war on terror is 4-5% of gross domestic product or $8-10 billion. The country is already slipping down the growth ladder – the economy expanded by just 2-3% in the last five years as opposed to its prior average growth of 5%. Meanwhile, the chief global prosecutor of the war on terror, the government of the United States, has reimbursed only $11 billion during the last decade to Pakistan for rendering military services.
At the macro level, the growing economic stagnation has diminished the productivity of workers as well as the creativity of entrepreneurs. Its inflationary impact increases the cost of doing business and lowers the purchasing power of the average consumer.
Businesses are adversely affected by the wave of terrorism in Pakistan. Exporters lose orders and potential buyers refuse to invest in the country because of security concerns and disrupted business activities.
Foreign investors shy away and existing players need a solid reason to stay. Day-to-day economic activities slow down and industrial output declines. Then there are the direct costs, such as paying the beneficiaries of those affected by the war on terror and covering the losses of physical infrastructure.
Pakistan is counting on foreign investment to spur new activity and bring medium-term economic growth back up to 7% from 4% today. In particular the government is looking to power and infrastructure projects in which China will play a big role.
But even a single attack on a Chinese investor or technical consultant could put a stop to such projects. Kidnappings of Chinese engineers in the past are a case in point. Several foreign players operating in Pakistan are packing up, Cathay Pacific being the latest example in the aftermath of the Karachi airport terrorist attack.
On the local level, small-scale traders who may have dreamed of expanding their business are reluctant to increase their risks. In fact, every new venture becomes a risky business: marriage halls, restaurants, tailoring shops, transport companies. The owners of all these and more would be cautious before scaling up.
The recent decision of the government in Islamabad to take military action in North Waziristan to cleanse it of terrorists is a welcome one after failed peace talks. However, it will have further negative economic and social fallout in an already compromised situation.
There are rumours that suicide bombers are spread across the country as the Taliban have officially warned of attacks in economic hubs (Lahore and Islamabad). Their potential targets would be political leaders, shopping plazas, cinemas and multinational offices.
Needless to say, the vicious cycle of diminishing foreign investment will further deplete the country’s economic potential.