Although the Commerce Ministry has maintained its export growth forecast at 3.5% for the full year, the central bank expects the figure to come in below 3%, and shippers are even more pessimistic.
The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) yesterday cut its forecast for Thailand's exports to a range of 1% to 1.6% from an earlier 3%.
The shippers cited pressure from volatile economic conditions, the baht's appreciation and a sluggish manufacturing sector.
"Despite an export recovery in June, Thai exports still face a spate of risks," said TNSC president Nopporn Thepsithar, citing the Israeli-Gaza conflict and the escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia as examples of the fragile global environment.
He said such instability led to higher premiums for cargo insurance.
The central bank still expects export growth to fall well short of the Commerce Ministry's target, given declining crop prices and the slowdown of the Chinese and Japanese economies.
Don Nakornthab, the Bank of Thailand's director for economic policy, said China's economic slowdown from early this year and Japan's recent consumption tax hike had harmed Thai exports to those countries.
The central bank earlier forecast 3% export growth this year, down from a previous projection of 4.5% in March.
For the first half, however, exports shrank 0.1% year-on-year.
Merchandise exports grew by 3.8% year-on-year in June after a 1.2% contraction in May thanks to increased shipments of petrochemical products, machinery and equipment.
Despite improvement in several economic indices, economic growth in the second quarter is projected to have declined by 0.4% year-on-year, Mr Don said.
"We await economic figures for July with anticipation since June is reckoned to be the first month in which uncertainty has been reduced," he said.
Mr Don said a technical recession was unlikely to occur thanks to long-awaited clarity in domestic politics and improvements in domestic consumption and exports.
A technical recession is defined as two straight quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.
On the domestic side, the central bank remains adamant the main concern of the moment is swelling household debt, not inflation.
According to the Commerce Ministry's latest report on Monday, Thai exports rose for the first time in four months in June, driven by higher farm shipments.
June exports grew by 3.9% year-on-year to US$19.8 billion. For the first six months, overall shipments fell by 0.35% to $113 billion.
Thailand's shipments contracted by 1.98% year-on-year in January before rising by 2.43% in February. They slumped again in March, by 3.12%, then by 0.87% in April and 2.14% in May.
Farm and agribusiness shipments inched up for the first time in five months in June, rising by 2.6% year-on-year to $2.92 billion.
Thailand's farm economy this year is expected to grow in the range of 2.1% to 3.1% compared with 1.1% growth last year, as the agriculture and livestock sectors recover.
In the first half of this year, farm exports such as crops, fish and livestock edged up 0.8% year-on-year on improving prices for poultry and livestock products, said agriculture permanent secretary Chavalit Chookajorn.
Exports of industrial products rose by 3.9% year-on-year in June to $13.1 billion, led by gems and jewellery, garments, plastic pellets and products, electronics, electric appliances, construction materials, and vehicles and parts.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) yesterday cut its economic growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.5%, citing the uncertain prospects for exports, tourism and the global economy.
UTCC said Thailand's investment sector was expected to slacken, farm product prices remained low and household debt and living costs were high.
According to UTCC rector Sauwanee Thairungroj, investment is expected to contract by 0.4% from a year earlier, with private consumption expanding by just 1.2% and exports by 1.8%.
She said that despite the expected recovery of Thai tourism in the fourth quarter, the number of tourist arrivals is forecast to fall by 5.9% for the full year to 24.9 million, with revenue shrinking by 2.8% to 1.17 trillion baht.
Nonetheless, Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC's vice-president for research, said Thailand should bounce back to growth in excess of 5% next year, driven by infrastructure investment and a global economic recovery.