Emerging-market currencies slumped last year by the most since 1997, and analysts are forecasting further losses in 2016 as China’s economy slows and the US raises interest rates.
The deteriorating sentiment also hurt stocks and bonds, with an index of equities covering developing countries posting the biggest annual drop since 2011. The premium investors demand to hold emerging-market sovereign debt widened for an unprecedented third year after the Federal Reserve took the long-awaited move of tightening monetary policy and signaled more to come.
UBS AG and Citigroup Inc strategists said in December that more pain is coming because developing markets haven’t fallen enough to reflect subdued global growth. A slump in commodities that pushed down the price of Brent crude is also damping confidence as economists forecast China, the world’s second-biggest economy and a major buyer of raw materials, will slow further in 2016.
“Fundamentally, none of the emerging-market currencies are going to buck against the tide of a stronger dollar,” said Sim Moh Siong, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd. “The focus for the Fed has shifted from lift-off to the next rate hike. We could be stuck in the low-for-longer scenario for commodity prices.”
Exchange rates
A measure of 20 developing-nation exchange rates depreciated 15% in 2015, the steepest slide since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when it slumped 23%. All but six of the 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg are expected to weaken again in the next 12 months, with Argentina’s peso, the Brazilian real and the Indonesian rupiah seen falling the most, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The former two led losses last year after wiping out at least a third of their value.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index tracking 22 raw materials sank 25% last year, while Brent crude plunged 35%. China’s gross domestic product is forecast to increase 6.5% in 2016, slowing from an estimated 6.9% in 2015, the weakest pace in 25 years, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“It will continue to be highly volatile,” Nathan Griffiths, a senior emerging-market equities manager who helps oversee US$1.2 billion at NN Investment Partners in The Hague, said by e-mail. “The main risk remains the Chinese economy. This is the biggest driver of global trade and emerging markets, and an inability to stabilise will drive emerging-market GDP lower again."
The direction of currencies also remains a “big threat” for equities, he said.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 17% in 2015. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong and equities in Brazil, Colombia, Turkey and Egypt were among the biggest decliners last year. The measure is valued at 11 times projected 12-month earnings. The MSCI World Index fell 2.7% and is valued at a multiple of 15.7.
Currencies
“China’s slowdown, combined with the fear of Fed rate hikes as well as price weakness in commodities led to quite a bad year for emerging-market investors who didn’t look for a niche market,” Attila Vajda, managing director of Project Asia Research & Consulting Pte, a Singapore-based advisory firm, said from Ho Chi Minh City. “Investors should cherry pick and not treat all EM markets as being the same.”
In Asia, currencies weakened last year mainly due to capital outflows in anticipation of higher US interest rates and the impact from China’s economic slowdown. Malaysia’s ringgit led the losses with a 19% decline as the slide in Brent crude also cut government revenue for the region’s only major net oil exporter. It was the worst annual performance since 1997. Indonesia’s rupiah dropped 10%, the baht depreciated almost 9% and South Korea’s won lost 6.3%. The rupiah, won and Taiwan’s dollar are forecast to lead declines in 2016.
Argentina’s peso plunged 35% last year after the country abandoned the currency’s peg to the dollar. The Brazilian real retreated 33% amid a corruption scandal that began at the state-run oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA, credit-rating downgrades and a political crisis that left the nation’s president facing impeachment proceedings. The Turkish lira fell for the third straight year, as did the Russian ruble, which has erased almost 60% of its value since the end of 2012 due to oil’s slide and sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine.
Bonds
The yield premium on emerging-market government debt over US Treasuries widened 56 basis points last year to 410 on Thursday, JPMorgan Chase & Co data show. That’s the most since 2011.
Sovereign local-currency notes delivered a loss of 2.1% in dollar terms for 2015, after gaining 4% in 2014, according to a Bloomberg gauge. The biggest returns for last year were from Nigeria, the Dominican Republic and Russia, while Brazilian and South African debt led declines.