Trinity Securities recommends investors opt for tourism, healthcare, commerce, consumer and export stocks, saying these sectors should be the major beneficiaries of an expected cut in interest rates in the second quarter, as well as fiscal policy to spur economic growth.
Nuttachart Mekmasin, executive director of the research department at Trinity Securities, said the Bank of Thailand is anticipated to slash the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points this year to 2%, starting in the second quarter based on market conditions, not "political pressure".
According to past data, interest rate cuts in 2007, 2011 and 2019 affected various assets. The first two rate cuts increased the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, but the 2019 reduction did not because of the Covid-19 crisis.
"Industries that recorded outstanding performance before the first interest rate cut include healthcare, commerce, ICT and food, which are mostly domestic plays," said Mr Nuttachart.
Groups that did well after the cut were commerce, healthcare, electronics, ICT and transport.
"We recommend investors try to find a good time to create exposure to these sectors, preparing for the cycle of interest rate reduction," he said.
Trinity Securities lowered its forecast for the SET's earnings per share (EPS) in 2025 from 113 baht to 107 baht.
For this month, the index is expected to move between 1,350 and 1,410 points, while the estimates for the full year are 1,520, 1,415 and 1,315 points in the best-, base- and worst-case scenarios, respectively.
Regarding investments in the second quarter, Trinity recommends tourism, consumer products and stocks that benefit from increasing government spending, as well as export stocks and those benefiting from China's economic recovery.
Contractors and construction material shares are suggested for April, based on higher government disbursement, said the brokerage. These include CH Karnchang (CK), Sino Thai Engineering and Construction (STEC), Siam Global House (GLOBAL) and Dohome Plc (DOHOME).
Stocks expected to benefit from the digital wallet policy, such as CP All, CP AXT and Berli Jucker (BJC), are also recommended, along with beverage stocks such as Ichitan Group (ICHI) and Sappe Plc (SAPPE) because of the hot weather.
Trinity also suggests export stocks: Asian Alliance International (AAI), i-Tail Corporation (ITC), Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) (STGT), Thai Union Group (TU) and Exotic Food (XO).