
InnovestX Securities, the investment arm of SCB X Group, says the global economy and investment landscape are viewed as having "high volatility and low returns" this year, suggesting a trading-focused investment strategy to capitalise on short-term market opportunities.
Chief research officer Sukit Udomsirikul said InnovestX forecasts Thai GDP expansion of 2.7% this year, supported by continued fiscal stimulus, while monetary policy hinges on timely interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand.
As of January, private investment and consumption are projected to grow by 0.5% and 2.2%, respectively, while foreign tourist arrivals are expected to reach 40 million. Exports are unlikely to show significant growth, according to the brokerage.
"Delays in rate reductions could exacerbate the domestic economic slowdown," he said.
Piyasak Manason, head of economic research at InnovestX, said the global economy will be driven by four factors, starting with a transition from high inflation to a soft landing. Donald Trump's "America First" policies could also reshape global economic and trade dynamics.
Third is technology, with innovation accelerated by artificial intelligence and green technologies. He said the final factor is turmoil, with escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to worldwide disruptions.
Recommended investments in the first half of 2025 are gold and high-quality bonds, given global volatility, said Mr Piyasak. As the stock market will remain unstable, investors are advised to focus on defensive and value stocks with strong recovery potential.
Key equity markets for investment are the US, China, India and Vietnam, according to InnovestX. In Thailand, the net profit of listed companies is expected to grow by 22% this year, with the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index projected to reach 1,550 points.
The Thai economy faces its own set of challenges, with the manufacturing sector losing its competitiveness, while monetary policy remains overly restrictive, requiring the Bank of Thailand to reduce interest rates promptly and consistently, noted the brokerage.
The government urgently needs comprehensive tax reform to mitigate fiscal risks while escalating environmental challenges demand immediate attention, said Mr Piyasak.
"We expect the central bank to cut interest rates three times this year. Even though household debts remain high, the economy will grow slowly if monetary policies remain strict and commercial banks tighten loan approvals," he said.
InnovestX recommends selective investments in US mid- and small-cap value stocks to capitalise on expected stimulus policies under the Trump administration.
"We also suggest focusing on emerging markets with strong growth potential, such as China and Vietnam, which are less affected by US import tariffs," Mr Piyasak said.
For fixed income, InnovestX recommends global bonds with tenures of 3-5 years to lock in returns while mitigating risks, said investment strategist Visakorn Kirivan.