Thailand’s economic growth surged to a five-year high last quarter, beating all economists’ estimates as rebounding farm output added to gains from exports and private consumption.
Gross domestic product rose 4.8% from a year ago, the National Economic and Social Development Board said on Monday, the fastest pace since 2013. The median estimate of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey was 4%.
GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 2% compared with the previous three months, higher than the 1.2% median estimate.
Four years after the military seized power, the economy is beginning to rebound with growth sustained by a pick-up in exports and tourism, although the country still lags peers in the region. The central bank last week held its benchmark rate near a record low to help support the economic recovery as businesses are still reluctant to invest.
The statistics agency raised its growth forecast for this year to 4.2% to 4.7%, from 3.6% to 4.6%.
“Higher exports help support the manufacturing sector,” Wichayayuth Boonchit, deputy secretary general of the state planning agency, said in a briefing in Bangkok. Private investment is expected to recover this year, he said.
The military government has cut red tape, stepped up efforts to woo foreign-direct investment for industrial modernisation and is boosting infrastructure. But big projects have faced delays and elections expected next year inject uncertainty into the outlook.
Thailand’s foreign-reserve buffers and a current-account surplus are helping to shield the nation from volatility as US rates rise. The baht gained 0.1% to 32.163 per dollar as of 9.50am. It earlier touched 32.363, the weakest level since January.
The baht is among the few emerging-market currencies that has gained against the dollar this year.
Exports rose 6% from a year earlier. Private consumption gained 3.6% while government spending rose 1.9%
The World Bank has said raising Thailand’s potential growth to a range of above 4% to 5% remains a challenge. Boosting education and services are critical to raising productivity as the population rapidly ages, it said.