Spoiled by victory?

Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) are poised to coast to victory in general elections this coming Sunday, but it may not be smooth sailing ahead for Asia's longest-serving leader.

Given that some 40% of voters who backed the main opposition party in the last election don't have that choice this time around, dissatisfaction that has been simmering beneath the surface could boil over into unrest, say political observers.

"A lot of people who were born after the Untac (United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia) election in May 1993 are not going to be happy with the results that will come out after July 29 and there could be social unrest right after," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.

Untac was placed in charge of Cambodia as part of the Paris peace accords that ended the Cambodia-Vietnamese war. It successfully arranged a general election in May 1993 but it led to a hung parliament. It also failed to disarm the Khmer Rouge and the CPP, which was in power before the UN took over. Hun Sen agreed to a power-sharing arrangement with Prince Norodom Ranariddh and the Funcinpec party before finally sidelining him in 1997.

Two decades on, Hun Sen appears firmly in control, but to maintain power he may have to become even more authoritarian, says Dr Thitinan.

"In the longer term, Hun Sen will have to impose a lot of repression and will have China's backing but he will have a problem keeping this up and eventually his dynastic ambition is going to be undermined," he told a panel discussion at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand recently.

Sebastian Strangio, a journalist and author of Hun Sen's Cambodia, said the premier deserves credit for forging the longest period of peace and stability in modern Cambodia's history, even if it was achieved by "very heavy-handed methods".

Economic growth and peace, however, have created generations of young Cambodians who have grown up in an entirely different world from that of their parents and grandparents.

"The long-term sustainability of the CPP will pretty much be brought into question," he said. "We have young people who were born since the end of the civil war in 1998 who will be voting for the first time in this year's election and these people respond very differently to the CPP's claim to have given Cambodia a second birth."

The propaganda doesn't work on young voters like Mao Theany, a student at Royal University of Phnom Penh. She said Hun Sen has had to take extraordinary steps to stay in power.

"With the dissolution of the strongest opposition party, the weekly meetings with garment workers and spending the national budget, I think the premier has now gained mass popularity ahead of the upcoming general election," she told Asia Focus. "He has greatly abused his power as a prime minister."

Mao Theany, 22, who was too young to vote in 2013, believes that with CPP people heading most ministries, Hun Sen probably could have "eliminated his biggest potential rival easily and legitimately" in a fair election. Instead he used the courts to sideline the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP).

"I think he has shown no fear of public and international criticism on his regime," she said. "The prime minister has been strongly accused of violating democracy in the country and creating fear among people of not voting for his party.

"I believe he will continue to use ruthless methods to maintain his position and keep favouring the poor to gain more popularity. I think there is no significance to the election since the other 19 parties are presumably his allies. He is leading the troops into a battle where there is no rival in existence."

Meng Sokhouy, 24, from the same university, voted in the 2013 election. She said Hun Sen had been building up his popularity through public appearances at events such as graduation ceremonies and in his frequent talks with garment workers.

"Remarkably, he not only meets with them but he also gives them each a little bit of pocket-money as an incentive," she told Asia Focus.

While she believes Hun Sen's political network, including cabinet ministers, has worked hard to promote CPP policies at the commune, district, provincial and city levels, pockets of discontent exist. She cites Sihanoukville, now bustling with hotels and casinos catering to Chinese tourists, as an example.

"The province used to be a relaxing destination -- city residents normally came for a visit. But now, the number of local tourists and residents is decreasing dramatically because it's full of Chinese investment," she said.

Both Mao Theany and Meng Sokhouy expect Hun Sen will win the election but neither sees any cause for protesting against the eventuality of the results.

"Some of my friends said they would not go to vote because it is useless," Mao Theany said. "This is just a mask to present to the international community that Cambodia has a general election with multiple parties participating but the truth is that he has done almost everything to keep his position.

"Most people in Cambodia just want to work and be with their family. They don't care about politics. … Some might think they don't have to vote because he will win anyway."

Meng Sokhouy believes memories of the violent crackdown on the opposition seen after the previous election will deter protests this time. "Even if I do not agree with Hun Sen's suppression of the press, I will not go out to protest," she said.

As far as Hun Sen's popularity goes, Dr Thitinan noted that at least two government-sponsored surveys in 2016 caused anxiety in CPP circles. They showed Hun Sen and the CPP have been losing popularity while the CNRP and its then leader, Sam Rainsy, were gaining increasing support.

The CNRP won 44% of the popular vote in the 2013 national election, versus 44% for the CPP, and there was every indication that another close race was likely this year. That was before the Supreme Court ordered the CNRP dissolved on flimsy grounds.

"In May 2016, the CPP had 46% (popularity) and the CNRP 36% but by September it became 44% for the CNRP and 35% for the CPP and this was in a poll that was commissioned by the Hun Sen government, not by the opposition," Dr Thitinan said.

"In 2013, the CNRP was closing in. The poll came out in 2015-16, [opposition activist] Kim Ley was assassinated, there was a lot of corruption along the way, and by the end of 2016, the CNRP was pulling ahead. Basically what we are seeing, if a free and fair election were to take place on July 29, the CNRP would likely win."

With the CNRP now out of the picture, boycotting the election was an option for what remains of the opposition, but that is a "risky strategy" that could further embolden Hun Sen, in Dr Thitinan's view.

"I am not sure which one is better: Thailand has no elections and has dictatorship, while Cambodia has elections but with dictatorship," he said.

"The main opposition has been disbanded and that means that 3 million voters have been disenfranchised. The turnout of 68% in 2013 was on the low side so the turnout is the key to me, while the risk of boycotting can be seen in the case of Thailand. We have had two major boycotts in 2006 and again in 2014 and it has led us to a big mess right now."

Dr Thitinan also predicted voter turnout this time would be around 55% to 60% and the CPP would win but with "a lack of legitimacy".

The party will bank on continuing prosperity as Cambodia's economy has been doing well with GDP expansion averaging around 7% a year.

"(The CPP government) has reduced extreme poverty from 53.5% in 2004 to less than 10% in 2017. Main industries such as garments, footwear and tourism are also booming so they are going to bank on prosperity in exchange for elected dictatorship," he pointed out.

Dr Thitinan also projected that China's endorsement of the Cambodian election results will be countered by pressure from the United States and European Union via sanctions and the withdrawal of some aid.

Japan, however, is in a "tough position". Japanese leaders, said Dr Thitinan, will be tempted to keep up with China by endorsing the election because "they do not want to lose Cambodia to China".

Since 1992, Japan has contributed about US$2 billion to the Cambodian government. Recently, the country signed a grant and loan agreement worth $90 million, despite concerns from the international community over Hun Sen's crackdown on government critics.

Japan this month provided more than $7 million in aid to Cambodia's National Election Committee (NEC), including the cost of 11,000 ballot boxes and 40 pickup trucks.

Nevertheless, China's concentration on Southeast Asia with the Belt and Road initiative has increased its influence on the region. In 2010, the mainland surpassed Japan as the biggest aid donor to Cambodia.