Despite the escalating trade row between the US and China, Thailand's exports are expected to manage strong growth of 9.2% this year, fetching the country US$258.58 billion, says the Pracha Rat (People's State) steering committee on exports and outward foreign direct investment.
The world economy has improved, while the baht has weakened to average 33 to the US dollar after trading at 31 to the greenback at the beginning of the year, said Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the promotion group for exports and outward foreign direct investment under the Pracha Rat Public-Private Collaborative Committee.
According to Mr Sanan, also chairman of melamine maker Srithai Superware Plc, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products are expected to rise 6% this year to $36.93 billion, boosted by rice, tapioca products and food.
Exports of industrial products are projected to surge 11% to $209.5 billion, he said, driven by electronics, automobiles, electric appliances and plastic pellets.
According to a Commerce Ministry report, exports rose nearly 11% year-on-year in the first six months of 2018 to $125.81 billion -- the highest rate in seven years. Exports in baht terms edged up 0.8% year-on-year to 3.96 trillion baht.
Imports rose by 15.6% to $122.356 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $1.877 billion.
For the period, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products rose 4.5% year-on-year, while shipments of industrial products totalled $100.317 billion, up 11.5%.
Mr Sanan said that given the US-China trade war, Thailand, which normally supplies rubber as raw material to China, may export less because China is likely to buy less raw material from Thailand because of higher US tariffs on rubber.
On the positive side, the trade row between the two giant economies may lead Japanese rubber firms to relocate their production to Thailand, where rubber supply is abundant.
According to Mr Sanan, food exports are also expected to greatly benefit from the trade spat after the mainland slapped a 25% tariff on 222 items of US products that included seafood, soybeans, pork, fish, orange juice and whiskey on July 6 in retaliation for higher US tariffs on Chinese products.
Higher tariffs on US goods imposed by China will make US products in the Chinese market more expensive and Thai products more competitive in China.
The Commerce Ministry reported recently that the first groups expected to benefit from China's higher tariffs are sellers of shrimp and crab, be it live, fresh, frozen, dried, salted or smoked.
In 2017, China imported more than $2.5 billion worth of shrimp and crab products from the world, $290 million of which was from the US and $150 million of which was from Thailand, while Thailand shipped $1.16 billion worth of shrimp and crab to the world market.
Another group of seafood products expected to see a windfall is frozen cuttlefish and fish.
Last year, China imported $500 million worth of cuttlefish from the world, with $75 million from the US and $200,000 from Thailand, while imports of frozen fish amounted to $230 million, with $43 million from the US and $1 million from Thailand.
Thailand exported $290 million and $250 million worth of cuttlefish and frozen fish, respectively, last year.
But the Commerce Ministry has warned that higher import tariffs by China on US goods could prompt US products such as salmon, cod, frozen cuttlefish and lobster to flood into Thailand.
Thai manufacturers will have a good opportunity to import US products and process them for re-export or domestic consumption at relatively low cost, said Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office under the ministry, but responsible authorities must watch for and prevent any negative impact on domestic fish farmers.