BoT sees export peak this month, maintains forecast

BoT sees export peak this month, maintains forecast

Growth view still 9% for full year

The Bank of Thailand estimates that the country's export value will peak this month and the 9% target is achievable. (Bangkok Post photo)
The Bank of Thailand estimates that the country's export value will peak this month and the 9% target is achievable. (Bangkok Post photo)

The Bank of Thailand estimates that the country's export value will peak at US$23 billion this month and help export growth reach 9% this year.

September is typically the peak month for Thai exports, said Don Nakornthab, senior director for economics and policy.

The country's outbound shipments will achieve the 9% full-year forecast if September's export value reaches $23 billion and monthly growth for the remaining period averages 7%.

Although export volume continued to increase from $20.3 billion in July to $22.4 billion in August, merchandise export growth expanded at a slower 5.8% in August after 8.3% growth in July.

Excluding gold, the value of merchandise exports grew by 9.6% and expanded in most items. The overall expansion was driven by continued increases in exports of automotive and parts, petroleum-related products, machinery and equipment, and electronic products.

But exports of fishery products continued to contract, due to a supply shortage.

In August, the economy gained further traction from domestic and external demand, Mr Don said.

Private consumption grew in most categories in line with improving farm income, up 4.8% year-on-year in August. Unemployment was steady at 0.8%.

Headline inflation rose in August on an increase in retail petroleum prices of 1.6%, which could be a peak level for the year. Core inflation, stripping out fuel and fresh food, declined marginally from July.

The current account posted a smaller surplus of $800 million in August, down from $1.1 billion the month before. For the eight months, the current account ran a surplus of $23.6 billion.

Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) revised up its economic growth forecast for 2018 to 4.6% from earlier forecast at 4.5%.

The upwardly revised figure is due to higher-than-expected growth in the first half of 4.8% and positive momentum from exports and tourism, said managing director Charl Kengchon.

But the economy in the second half of the year is expected to grow at a slower pace because of higher uncertainties, especially the China-US trade spat and fragile emerging-market economies.

Even so, the impact of these negative factor will be limited this year, Mr Charl said, and the research house is maintaining its 2018 export growth view of 8.8%.

K-Research also upgraded the outlook for private consumption to 4.2% from 3.5%, and for public consumption to 2.5% from 2.2%, in line with improving farm income.

But the public investment growth forecast was trimmed to 6% from 8% because of delayed budget disbursement.

The research house forecasts the central bank to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.5% throughout this year before raising the rate twice by a combined 50 basis points in the first half of 2019.

"The policy rate hike projection is based on a positive economic recovery, but financial stability is a key concern amid global economic uncertainties," Mr Charl said. "So the rate is expected to be steady from the first half next year."

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