Thailand saw a relatively average year for employment and labour, even as GDP growth fell shorter than expected. Unemployment remained steady and wages increased, as experts and prognosticators predict continued wage growth into 2019.
"Thailand has always had unusually low unemployment rates, but that is not necessarily because the economy is doing well," says Nuarpear Lekfuangfu, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Economics.
"This is for two reasons -- the amount of informal workers who work part-time for low pay are considered 'employed', and then there is another 20 million who do not look for work at all and are considered 'discouraged workers'."
She says the majority of those not looking for work are female, about 40% of working age women compared with 20% of working-age men. However, the number of non-working women is much lower than in other Asian countries such as Japan.
Average monthly wages in Thailand increased to 14,075.55 baht per month in the third quarter of 2018, up from 13,877.7 baht per month in the third quarter of 2017, according to data from the National Statistical Office.
The minimum wage in Bangkok increased to 325 baht a day in April, up from 300 baht at the beginning of the year. Other provinces also raised the minimum wage by 8-30 baht per day from 300 baht, the highest applying to tourist-heavy areas like Phuket.
According to a report by global recruiting agency Robert Walters, digitisation in Thailand has led to a rise in demand for tech sector workers, as companies are pushing to build online and mobile presences. This also pushes demand for marketers with e-commerce expertise. The report found 90% of professionals felt confident of job opportunities in their own sector.
The tech sector has seen increased government support from the Thailand 4.0 initiative, which has made it easier for tech companies to hire foreign workers.
Despite signs of progress, a Moody's Investors Service report found Thailand lags behind Asean peers, particularly Malaysia and Singapore, in terms of labour market efficiency and higher education and training in the workforce. Many tech companies in Bangkok rely on foreign workers for niche skilled jobs, and benefit from a programme through the Board of Investment that allows software companies to easily obtain visas for foreign workers.
According to the Bank of Thailand there were no workers strikes or lockouts in 2018, there having been two in 2017. There were 41 labour disputes recorded up to October of 2018, far lower than 2017's full year total of 107 disputes.
"This is a so-so year for labour in Thailand, nothing spectacular, just average," Ms Nuarpear says. "There was no large scale layoffs and we didn't see any negative structural changes to the labour market."
LABOUR IN 2019
The forecast for the overall salary increase for 2019 is 5%, according to global professional services firm Mercer, with the automotive sector projected to have the highest salary increases in the country at 5.5%.
Figures and forecasts are based on the Total Remuneration Surveys, part of Mercer's annual compensation and benefits study, with participation from over 560 companies in Thailand across various industries. The study concludes that Thailand has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Southeast Asia and a rapidly aging workforce.
According to Ake Ayawongs, chief executive and a partner of Mercer Thailand, the future of work in Thailand's digital economy poses great opportunities as well as risks.
"Organisations that can adopt more agile workforce models and offer more personalised flexible employment value propositions will likely thrive."
He says that companies should leverage available digital enablers to overcome the natural operational hurdles and deliver a truly fluid, real-time and engaging experience."
The election in 2019 could have a profound impact on the labour market, depending on the outcome. A successful display of democracy could bring in new further investment from abroad, especially from the European Union who has been delaying negotiating a trade deal since the 2014 coup.
"The election could certainly have a role in determining income on labour," Ms Nuarpear says. "It's hard to tell because you don't know which party will come in next and what their policies will be."
The online job search platform, JobThai, produced an analysis of job search statistics throughout the country, finding that sales, technicians, manufacturing, quality control, administration, purchasing and engineering and accounting are the five main job categories that will be the most sought-after job categories in 2019.
In addition, imports and exports, human resources, health and nutrition, science and research and transport and logistics are five categories that are expected to grow the most in the first quarter of 2019.
These sectors' high growth is attributed to the overall economic growth of the country, an increase in private consumption and investment, government investment projects, such as infrastructure investment projects in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and the upcoming elections in early 2019, which cumulatively create an upbeat investment climate in the country that in turn affects the labour market across the country.
AUTOMATION
The automation labour crisis has not yet manifested in an impactful manner in Thailand, mainly due to low wages that make replacing workers with expensive technology uneconomic.
Low skilled factory workers are most at risk of losing their jobs to automation, as are accountants and finance professionals, says Gerrit Bouckaert, managing director at Robert Walters Thailand.
"The labour intensive aspects of accounting, like bookkeeping, will start to disappear and be replaced by automated software," he says. "Accountants should look for more analytical work and develop those skills."
He says manufacturers, especially in the Eastern Economic Corridor, are working hard on automation and robotisation, but there still has not been a noticeable impact on employment. Automation and increased investment into "smart" data-driven manufacturing has opened up opportunities for high skilled engineers and those with digital skills.
According to Deloitte research on megatrends, physical objects are becoming more and more frequently interconnected with digital technology (such as advanced robotics and sensing) and able to communicate without human intervention.
By 2020, the robotics industry could reach a market volume of US$100 billion (3.25 trillion baht) worldwide. During 2014-24, half of the work carried out by today's US workers could be automated to some extent. In that period, the robotics industry may create 3 million additional jobs, especially in consumer electronics and the electric vehicle industry.
By 2020, the rehabilitation robot market may grow 40-fold compared with 2014 due to advancements in rehab/therapy robots, exoskeletons, wearable robotics, and active prostheses.
Automation can reduce errors significantly and support product improvements. In the life sciences and healthcare industry, robots sterilise surgical tools without human intervention, thus incidents of infection are reduced and hospital staff resources are freed up. Robotic systems in pharmacies could hand out drugs with zero errors and patients will be able to enter medical symptoms and receive customised recommendations from automated kiosks.
INFORMAL WORK
A tough year has gone by for informal workers, especially street food vendors, in Bangkok. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) began enforcing strict rules against these workers, most notably banning all street vendors from Khao San Road in August.
There are an estimated 300,000 street vendors in Bangkok, 37% of who are food vendors, says Poonsap Tulaphan, manager of the informal worker advocacy organisation Foundation for Labour and Employment Promotion. Only about 20,000 vendors are registered with the BMA.
"We need a social dialogue from all stakeholders but the government chose an eviction policy instead of policy dialogue," Ms Poonsap says. "100,000-200,000 street vendors have been rendered unemployed. How can they survive for and who will feed the city with cheap food?"
Some experts worry this push by the city to clean up the streets and promote food sanitation could affect tourism as Bangkok is widely recognised as the street food capital of the world.
The government has set up a committee that includes Bangkok's governor and the interior minister to come up with relief measures for street vendors, but has yet to propose any remedies for the situation.
Street vendors, activists and NGOs are organising a collective push for a solution that addresses public health and regulations, but still gives street vendors room to operate their businesses.
GIG ECONOMY
Thailand's gig economy expanded further in 2018, with workers doing part-time non-traditional work, usually through an online platform such as ride-hailing service Grab or freelancing website Upwork.
While there are no official numbers on the amount of gig workers in Thailand, a 2017 report from Economic Intelligence Center (Siam Commercial Bank's research unit) found 30% of the Thai workforce identify as gig workers. Surprisingly, despite the high tech associations of the gig economy, baby boomers make up the largest portion of the gig population at 18%.
Kunyaruk Naiyaraksaree, the author of the study, says she expects the number of gig workers to grow in Thailand in the coming years, especially those seeking to supplement their incomes.
Another anecdotal indication of the gig economy's rise, is that the number of Grab drivers doubled this year, according to Tarin Thaniyavarn, the country head of Grab Thailand. The company also expanded into food and parcel deliveries, carrying out about 3 million deliveries in the past 10 months.
"The sharing economy can empower hundreds of thousands of people to better themselves," Mr Tarin says. "Not everyone can afford the stock to start a small business, but millions of Thais have motorcycles they can use to earn money through our platform."
CO-WORKING SPACES
Co-working spaces, or places where freelance workers and small businesses can rent out a room or desk to do business, are on the rise in Thailand, especially in Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Local startups like Hubba are competing with foreign companies like WeWork for the country's co-working market share.
SET-listed retail and property developer, Central Pattana (CPN) projects that the co-working space market in Asia will increase from 2% of the office business to 30% by 2030. The company has invested 400 million baht in Common Ground Thailand to increase co-working spaces in Thailand. In 2018, the co-working market was estimated to increase by 25%, according to research by Colliers International Thailand.
CPN, WeWork and Just Co are among the international co-working space companies invested in Thailand. While there are larger global competitors around Bangkok, Hubba, a Thai-based startup was first to market and is considered developing country's largest co-working space.
Co-working spaces do not only provide a place for people to work and free coffee, their primary selling point is providing a place for freelancers and entrepreneurs to network and find talent for new projects.
Vikram Kohli, managing director of CBRE Southeast Asia, says co-working spaces have continued to expand, with 44,000 square metres of space leased over the last 18 months. Operators mainly look for space in Grade A office buildings with good accessibility and an average space of 3,000 square metres.
"We believe these operators will continue to look for new centres and some are scheduled to be completed in the near future. In 2019, JustCo will open an 8,000-square-metre co-working space in Samyan Mitrtown. As more co-working spaces are completed, more companies may explore incorporating flexible spaces as part of their corporate real estate strategy."
As more companies adopt agile workplace solutions, CBRE expects more occupants to look for shorter term leases and increase their use of flexible and high-quality spaces. Flexible spaces mean that employees are no longer required to stick to a specific desk or address, meaning that office space is being used more efficiently and for multiple purposes.
Co-working space operators are not only space providers but also offer a diverse range of amenities and value-added services such as wellness facilities and supporting business functions.
SKILLS FOR THE FUTURE
To keep up with the looming threat of unemployment by automation, Thai workers are encouraged to keep learning new skills on a lifelong basis.
"The important skills for work in the future will ironically have more to do with people than robots -- soft skills, like leadership, communication and problem solving," says Dr Nuarpear.
"Future workers should not only work on their computing and IT skills, but also develop the ability to work with other people, imagination and resilience," she says. "Education centres must train workers to complement automation. Train humans to be humans so humans can work alongside robots."
Jobs in hospitality, elder care and sales that require human empathy or charisma are unlikely to be automated and appeal to those with the most well-rounded set of soft skills. Many white collar jobs in high tech industries will require future workers to find what the machine does not do well and compliment that.