More than 100 billion baht a year is needed to fund welfare schemes promised by the new government, according to Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) estimates.
The actual welfare spending, however, would hinge on the coalition government’s final decisions, taking into account the available budget and the scope of assistance provided, said director-general Lavaron Sangsnit.
Take the old-age living allowance as a prime example. Policymakers must consider whether they will offer the 1,000-baht monthly living allowance, as promised during the election campaign, either across the board or only to low-income earners, Mr Lavaron said.
The basic welfare benefits for 14.5 million smartcard holders will not be stalled, he said, while additional welfare provided under economic stimulus measures, including an extra 200 baht a month allowance for the disabled and a subsidy hike to 500 baht a month for goods purchases at Thong Fah Pracha Rat shops will end after they lapse.
The basic benefits are a monthly living allowance of 200-300 baht for spending at Thong Fah Pracha Rat shops, a discount for cooking gas purchases, and a 500-baht a month fare subsidy for public buses, trains, intra-provincial buses and electric trains.
Mr Lavaron said the basic benefits can proceed indefinitely because the cabinet’s 2017 resolution did not set an expiry period.
These assistance measures cost the Pracharat fund 3-4 billion baht a month, he said, adding that 18 billion baht worth of the fund’s available capital is sufficient to finance the aid in the event that annual budget expenditure is 3-4 months late from the start of fiscal 2020.
Even in the worst-case scenario that the fund’s money is no longer available, such assistance can be maintained by using this fiscal year’s budget framework for disbursement, Mr Lavaron said.