Did you know Thailand is among the most rapidly ageing countries in the world?
The UN has projected the share of people older than 65 years of age in Thailand will increase from 10.5% of the population this year to 19.5% and 25.9% in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thailand will become a super-aged society by about 2030.
Why do countries age? A declining death rate followed by a delayed decline in birth rate is the main reason for population ageing. This process gives rise to a group in society that is often called the baby boom generation. Once the baby boomers enter retirement age, we can expect an increase in the share of seniors in the whole population. Also, today people live longer, which further increases the share of seniors in the whole population.
But it is not just that Thailand is becoming an ageing society, which is a concern. It is the way we are becoming an ageing society that is the biggest concern.
There are at least two disturbing facts about population ageing in Thailand. According to a Bloomberg study entitled "Most Rapidly Aging: Countries", Thailand is the third most rapidly ageing country in the world in terms of the annual growth rate of its senior population, behind Singapore and South Korea. That means these countries including Thailand have very little time to prepare to become a super-aged society.
The second concern is Thailand's level of economic development in 15 years. Most countries that will become super-aged societies in 2030 are already "developed", but many including Thailand are still "developing". When a developing country becomes a super-aged society, many of its internal systems, labour markets, financial markets, legal systems, political systems and social welfare systems among others cannot effectively and efficiently cope with a major demographic transition. This issue remains largely neglected by governments and the business community.
There can be benefits from population ageing in what is called the "first demographic dividend" (the economy grows faster when the baby boomers enter their working age) and the "second demographic dividend" (the economy grows faster with more savings from the baby boomers as they prepare for retirement). Despite these "dividends", without proper preparation both from the public and private sectors, population ageing can become a national crisis.
Is Thailand ready for such a rapid transformation?
On Sept 4, Sasin and the Thailand Research Fund in partnership with the Bangkok Post will host a conference entitled "Riding the Waves of an Ageing Society: Business Opportunities and Challenges". The conference will be held at Sasin from 12.30-5pm, is free of charge and will be conducted in Thai. For more information, please visit www.sasin.edu/trf1
Prof Kua Wongboonsin is deputy director for administrative affairs at Chulalongkorn University's Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration and an award-winning demographics researcher. Dr Piyachart Phiromswad is director of Sasin's PhD programme and a member of the finance faculty.