Growth in global air freight traffic has peaked but remains robust, shows October data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Air freight movements, measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs), rose 5.9% in October year-on-year. This was a slowdown from 9.2% annual growth recorded in September, but still surpassed the average annual growth rate of 3.2% over the past decade.
Freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres, rose by 3.7% year-on-year in October. This was the 15th consecutive month in which demand growth outstripped capacity growth, which is positive for load factors, yields, and financial performance, the industry body said.
While cargo demand remains strong, several indicators show the growth peak may have passed, IATA said.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the US is tracking sideways, indicating the period when companies look to restock inventories quickly, which often gives air cargo a boost, has ended.
The new export orders component of the global Purchasing Managers' Index is stable, and the upward trend in seasonally adjusted freight volumes has moderated. Freight volumes are still expected to grow in 2018, although at a slower pace than in 2017.
"Tightening supply conditions in the fourth quarter should see the air cargo industry deliver its strongest operational and financial performance since the post-global financial crisis rebound in 2010," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA director-general.
Airlines in all regions reported an increase in total year-on-year demand in October. However, international freight growth slowed in all regions except Africa.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw freight volumes increase by 4.4% and capacity expanded by 3.9% in October.
Demand for freight is now around 3% higher than the peak reached in the post-financial crisis rebound in 2010.
North American carriers posted an increase in freight volumes of 6.6% for October, a slowdown from 7.4% in September. European airlines posted a 6.4% increase in freight demand in October, much lower than 10.6% growth in demand in September.
Middle Eastern carriers' freight volumes increased 4.6% in October and capacity increased 3.4%. Latin American airlines recorded 7.2% growth in demand in October and capacity increased 4.4% year-on-year.