Tourism, the largest industry in Cambodia, outstripping even the garment industry, has shrugged off the impact of escalating political tensions in the country, as international visitors have been drawn by improved cultural and infrastructure links with China.
The recent political turmoil in the country does not appear to have negatively affected the domestic economy, and tourist arrivals remain healthy despite international condemnation of the government's crackdown on the opposition.
A Feb 21 report released by the Ministry of Tourism showed a 54% jump in visits over the Chinese New Year period, with 864,770 local and international tourists travelling in Cambodia during the three-day holiday, according to BMI Research.
A total of 105,370 international visitors, led by the Chinese, visited the country, representing staggering growth of 93.5% year-on-year, with local visitors surging 47.3% to 744,140.
Tourism Minister Thong Khonalso noted that provinces bordering Vietnam and Thailand saw a sharp rise in arrivals relative to previous years. Thourn Sinan, chairman of the Cambodian chapter of the Pacific Asia Travel Association, noted that hotel occupancy in tourism hubs such as Siem Reap, Sihanoukville and Kampot was extremely high.
Overall tourist arrivals rose 11.8% last year with China topping the list at 1.2 million, followed by Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and South Korea.
The upbeat news follows a series of moves by Prime Minister Hun Sen to neutralise the opposition, all but guaranteeing victory for his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) in general elections later this year.
The main opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) was dissolved by the Supreme Court last November at the government's request, and authorities subsequently stripped 5,062 of the party's commune councillors and lawmakers of their voting rights. The dissolution was followed by the arrest of CNRP leader Kem Sokha for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government with US help, an accusation both he and the US have denied.
However, BMI Research said: "We do not expect the tourism sector to be adversely impacted by the ongoing political crackdown.
"With Hun Sen's grip on opposition dissent tightening and opposition leaders Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha in self-imposed exile and detained respectively, we do not expect to see a significant rise in political unrest as the upcoming elections, scheduled for July 29, approach."
The report was released as the European Union (EU) last Monday threatened to impose economic sanctions on Cambodia after the CPP said it had won every seat in a Senate election in which many opposition supporters were stripped of their right to vote.
The EU is considering "specific targeted measures" against Cambodia, its foreign ministers said in a statement, which diplomats said was a warning to long-time leader Hun Sen that senior government officials could face sanctions.
Preliminary results published by the CPP showed it had won 58 seats in the 62-seat Senate, leaving the other three political parties with nothing.
"The Council urges Cambodia to restore democracy," EU foreign ministers said, referring to the name of their formal grouping in Brussels. "In view of recent developments, the Council may consider specific targeted measures if the situation does not improve."
Those measures could include trade sanctions. It said the EU would step up the monitoring of its "Everything but Arms" arrangement with Cambodia that allows free access of goods from the country, including clothing and textiles, into its market of 500 million people.
BMI Research also noted that garment workers in Cambodia are unlikely to risk raising the level of political tension. Hun Sen has been courting this huge voting bloc, and recently approved an increase in the minimum wage that was even larger than employers and labour representatives had already agreed on.
In the previous general election in 2013, opposition leaders rallied the support of hundreds of thousands of garment workers in protest against what the CNRP perceived as an unfair outcome despite the party's significant gain in votes.
This time around, garment union leaders and workers may fear that any disruptions could spur the governments of the US and the EU to remove preferential trade treatment under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and Everything but Arms arrangements.
Leading politicians from both the US and EU are still deliberating the best way to encourage the CPP to allow opposition representatives to compete in the elections, but have refrained from taking action so far.
In late January, eight influential senators, including Bob Graham, Dick Durbin, John McCain and Marco Rubio, wrote a letter to the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Hailey, urging her to work with US partners and allies to isolate the Cambodian government and pressure it to reverse course.
Senators have also proposed a new bill, known as the Cambodia Accountability and Return on Investment (CARI) act, that could freeze the assets of senior officials if Kem Sokha remains in prison and the elections are not free and fair.
Nonetheless, the BMI report pointed out that the biggest risk facing the tourism sector comes from the potential for Sam Rainsy, the charismatic former CNRP leader, launching a grassroots uprising. In early February, he met with a group of Cambodian expats in Paris and told them that "one day we will decide to tell the people to stand up, and they will stand up". He demanded the release of all political prisoners in Cambodia and added that he is ready to lead a movement to save the country.
Sam Rainsy believes in his political programme, which was written with the help of German politicians from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and appears to have strong international support from European leaders. French Senator André Gattolin, who attended the Paris meeting, noted that Europe can help Cambodia, and France has the duty to do so because of their shared history.
"While not our core view, given Mr Rainsy's close political ties in the EU and the US, we could see an attempt to stir up opposition dissent in Cambodia in order to put pressure on the prime minister," said the BMI report.
"Although Hun Sen's unwavering support from the country's military and strong financial and political backing from Beijing would likely render any uprising unsuccessful, it could nonetheless pose a threat of widespread social unrest and violent demonstrations, posing a risk to the otherwise bright outlook for the tourism industry."