Indonesian President Joko Widodo was poised to win another term running the world’s largest Muslim-majority country on Wednesday, even as opponent Prabowo Subianto signalled he would challenge the outcome.
Six top private polling agencies had Widodo, known as Jokowi, ahead of the former general by at least seven percentage points with about 90% of the vote counted. While election authorities must confirm any final outcome over the next few weeks, results from private companies have proven accurate in past elections.
Indonesia's presidential candidates Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto arrive at polling stations to cast their votes on Wednesday. (Reuters video)
“Let’s be united again as brothers and countrymen after the election, weaving unity and brotherhood,” Jokowi told a crowd of cheering supporters who were chanting his name. He didn’t declare victory, saying he would wait for official results.
Another five years in power for Jokowi would be welcome news for investors betting on the 57-year-old leader to pass measures that could unlock growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Prabowo ran a more nationalist campaign, with promises to tackle economic inequality and review Chinese investments.
The market responded positively to the early count, with one-month non-deliverable forwards for dollar-rupiah falling as much as 0.8%, the biggest decline in a month, to 14,055 as of 3.17pm in Jakarta. The local stocks, currency and bond markets were closed for voting.
After losing to Jokowi in the 2014 presidential election, Prabowo challenged the results in a lawsuit that was eventually dismissed by the Constitutional Court. On Wednesday, his campaign said quick counts showed he won 52.2% of the vote nationwide.
Chaos
“If there is chaos or not, it will not come from us, that I guarantee,” Prabowo, an army general who served as a special forces commander during the 32-year reign of the dictator Suharto, said after casting his ballot. “But we don’t want to be cheated anymore. The Indonesian people won’t be cheated anymore.”
As many as 193 million Indonesians were eligible to vote in Wednesday’s elections, which also determined the make-up of the legislature. Jokowi had the support of 10 parties that together account for about 60% of the strength of the outgoing parliament.
The president sought re-election on a pledge of providing free education, millions of jobs for the country’s young population and continuing an infrastructure building boom that saw him unveil US$350 billion of projects in his first term. After casting his vote at a polling station in Central Jakarta, Jokowi told reporters he was optimistic about winning the election.
Prabowo promised to revive Indonesia’s manufacturing sector while railing against Indonesia’s current account deficit and the inability of the current administration to spur economic growth much beyond 5%.
Supporters of Indonesian President Joko Widodo hold a large national red-white flag as they celebrate during a rally in Jakarta on Wednesday. (AP photo)
Quick counts by private pollsters are likely to provide the earliest indication of how the candidates fared as officials results are several days away. These numbers are based on snapshots of actual votes from more than 800,000 polling stations across the country -- the margin of error depends on the sample size, though the consensus of these polls has proven accurate in the past.
As polling stations closed at 1pm local in times zones across the archipelago, authorities remained on alert amid concerns of potential unrest. In Jakarta, armoured vehicles were parked in front of shopping malls, while tens of thousands of security forces had been deployed around the capital.
Jokowi’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and Golkar, which backed his re-election bid, were among gainers in the simultaneous legislative elections, quick count leads from the pollsters showed.
Growing conservatism
Two years ago, the Prabowo-backed pair of Anies Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno won a divisive gubernatorial election in the capital Jakarta. That race, dominated by mass street protests aimed ousting then-incumbent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, a Chinese Christian and Jokowi ally later jailed for insulting the Koran, was seen as boosting Prabowo’s fortunes ahead of the 2019 election.
That also ensured the presidential race would be set against the backdrop of a growing influence of conservative Islam. To many observers, the unrest seen two years ago prompted Widodo to pick a leading Muslim cleric in Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate.
This election is “much more about political identity” compared to the 2014 race, said Aaron Connelly, a Singapore-based research fellow from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Jokowi has sought to co-opt a number of Islamic conservatives," Connolly said, noting his choice of Amin was designed to "make a number of Muslims who might feel uncomfortable voting for Jokowi feel a little more comfortable voting for him.”
“Prabowo is backed by a number of political conservatives," he said. "He’s seen as the candidate of Islamic conservatives even though he himself is not particularly religious."