Disruptive technology could help generate more power from renewable sources, prompting energy policymakers to revise the country's power load forecast for the next 20 years, says the Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo).
The new forecast will be used in the revision of the power development plan (PDP), due early next year.
Eppo director-general Twarath Sutabutr said renewable energy and power storage technology are booming and will help generate more power from renewable sources.
The emergence of electric vehicles (EVs), high-speed rail and the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) are expected to raise demand for power, compelling policymakers to revise their outlook for both demand and supply.
A study by energy analyst Tienchai Chongpeerapieng released yesterday found power demand over the next 20 years could rise by an average of 2.3% a year, while peak power demand could reach 60,048 megawatts by 2036.
The findings are a change from the previous forecast of 2.5% annual growth in power demand and peak power demand of nearly 30,000MW.
Mr Tienchai said the new power load forecast is based on the assumption of GDP growth averaging 3.78% a year, down from the previous assumption of 3.9%.
Another change is the fast growth of the independent power supply (IPS) ranging from fossil-fuel based power plants to renewable-based power plants, which have pushed the IPS generating capacity to 3,000MW from 2,400MW at mid-year.
But energy storage technology has been excluded from the new revision of power load forecast as the cost of energy storage technology remains very high and it will take many years to develop, Mr Tienchai said.
On the demand side, he expects a massive rise in power demand spurred by the government's investment in infrastructure, particularly high-speed rail, which will require up to 1.32 billion kilowatt-hours of power.
Moreover, EVs in the Thai market are forecast to elevate power demand by 5.78 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to 2,466MW of power. The government hopes to make Thailand the EV hub of Asean.
Another major factor pushing power demand is the creation of the EEC, which is designed to accommodate new industrial factories that would require up to 2.76 billion kilowatt-hours (404MW).