The general prime minister reached behind himself to a very dark place and pulled out the sixth promise for a date for the 2015 election. This time the card he pulled out said "February 2019".
So why would anyone doubt that in February, patriotic Thais will be trooping to the polls to vote for their very favourite, military-approved, junta-vetted candidate? That this time, the wolf really is attacking the sheep? Why won't anyone believe it?
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who announced shortly after seizing power there would be an election in 2015, faced a heavy dose of scorn and disbelief. In fact, there was not a single, recorded comment anything along the lines of, "Whew, thanks Gen Prayut. We're so pleased you've come up with an election day".
Of course one reason no one said that is that Gen Prayut didn't pinpoint an election day. Within six hours of his "no later than February 2019" promise, his chief whip at his National Legislative Assembly (NLA) allowed that, "Well, yeah, definitely. Or maybe March."
The general prime minister, who in 2015 told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe there would be a general election in 2016, didn't comment on that. There was, however, a flurry of activity inside the junta's own bubble that indicated just what the regime is actually up to. It's up to what everyone had figured out a year or more ago -- perpetual rule with Gen Prayut at the head of it all.
There are two levels of operations: grassroots and dirty tricks.
Out in the villages, nearly 100,000 Royal Thai Army troops meant to support the nation have been seconded to help Gen Prayut's political ambition. The election workers, under the nationalist slogan Thai Niyom Yangyuen, or Thai-ness, are taking the suggestion that everyone should vote for a pro-military party to every door of every voter in the Northeast and North, where people are being reminded: "Nice little road project and school enhancement you've got going here. Be a shame if anything happened to them."
This is, for the moment, the only definition of Thai-ness permitted.
At a macro level Gen Prayut, who in September 2016 assured the 71st session of the UN General Assembly that Thailand would have a general election in 2017, has set a political campaign goal that is easily compressed into four words: "Same-same but different".
This is a jiu-jitsu campaign whose success or failure will be marked by whether the family and friends of Lord Voldemort na Dubai are sent weeping and wailing into total oblivion, or whether their legacies like the Pheu Thai Party are merely defeated, divided and banned forever from Thai politics.
Key here is to use and reverse the leverage that Voldemort and his sister, the world's only female fugitive former prime minister, thought they were using. On a defiant Southeast Asian tour, the Evil One rather proved the claim of his doting but realistic follower Watana Muangsook that The Fugitive has been out of Thailand too long to matter much any more.
In Singapore but particularly in Hong Kong old Square Head told and showed visiting Pheu Thai friends and the public at large that in the next election, whenever, he intends again to make sure of that slogan that Voldemort thinks and party-bots do his bidding. But the general prime minister -- who, by the way, signed a joint statement in the home of US President Trump last Oct 2 affirming an election would be held in 2018 -- has a trick up his PDFs.
The junta's constitution has a tricky little sub-sub-section. It says that any political party found to be getting support or advice from overseas shall be dissolved. Voldemort, in essence, is in the process of choosing the form of his own destruction.
Without firing a shot apart from a few suspected disappearances, Gen Prayut has put himself in a political position where Xi Jinping is likely writing him for advice.
He can delay the election again for any reason, including no reason, but for now, Gen Prayut's biggest danger is corruption. Politics has entered the period of great corruption, money and moral both -- buying and selling politicians' (pardon us for sneering) loyalty.
Political dealing and stealing risks getting caught with yet another unsavoury character, apart from his brother and chief wristwatch collector.
