TDRI Research Director
Kirida Bhaopichitr PhD is research director for the International Research & Advisory Service, Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). Policy analyses from the TDRI appear in the 'Bangkok Post' on alternate Wednesdays.
Uncertainty ahead for Thai economy
The Thai economy will face many headwinds but also tailwinds next year, mainly from the global economy and geopolitical tensions. In 2022, the Thai economy slowly recovered from the Covid pandemic as lockdowns ended and the economy was reopened to international travel.
Thai economy to see uptick in 2022
The Thai economy will continue to recover from last year, but is yet to reach its pre-Covid level. In 2022, economic growth is expected to be 3.0-3.5%, against 0.8% last year and -6.1% in 2020. This growth rate, however, still does not put the Thai economy back to its value in 2019. The value of the Thai economy or its gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to reach its 2019 level in 2023.
Thailand's economic outlook for 2021
The Thai economy will grow next year after contracting by almost 10% this year. Next year, the Thai economy is expected to expand 3 to 4% from this year. It will not be until the end of 2022 before the Thai economy returns to its pre-Covid level of 2019. However, if there is another wave of Covid-19 in Thailand, or if effective vaccines are delayed, the recovery could be slower than anticipated.
Thai economy's rocky road in 2020
The Thai economy will continue to grow slowly in 2020, albeit slightly faster than this year.
The Thai economy this year is poised to grow close to 4%, the best performance since 2012, but it is unclear whether mid- and low-income families will benefit.
The TPP quandary
The greatest impact of the TPP at the moment is to make more competition for Thailand in its US markets, but there are downsides to joining this treaty.