Columnnist

Chartchai Parasuk

Freelance economist

Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.

Chartchai Parasuk
1 Dec 2022

How are Thais spending so much now?

Third-quarter GDP growth for 2022 (Q3/2022) is 4.5% -- substantially higher than the expected 4%. The main driving factor is robust private consumption -- not tourism income -- which expanded 9% in real terms and 15.7% in nominal terms, compared to the same quarter last year. On the surface, this high growth phenomenon may look normal as most Asean countries have enjoyed similar benefits of low Covid infections and pent-up demand. For instance, Malaysia's private consumption also expanded 15.7% in the same third quarter.

1 Dec 2022 16
How are Thais spending so much now?
17 Nov 2022

World economy downhill from here

When I planned for this week's article, I wanted to write about the illusions of today's economic picture such as the robust GDP growth in emerging economies, declining inflation rates, booming travel business, strengthening of the Thai baht, and so on. But even with the economic data and theories to back up my claims, who would believe me? Who would believe that the current robust demand is nothing but an example of short-term, pent-up demand after two years of the Covid-19 outbreak? Who would consider the fact that consumers have no increased purchasing power to sustain today's level of consumption? Most of all, who would imagine that things would change drastically in the fourth quarter after consumers face the reality of a higher cost of living and stagnant income?

17 Nov 2022 26
World economy downhill from here
3 Nov 2022

Risk of global financial crisis spiking

I am writing this article in Tokyo. Judging from my walks around the city during the past week, and despite the fact everyone is wearing face masks, it's like Covid has vanished. Subways and trains are jam-packed and shopping areas are full of people. However, the pandemic has left some scars. Many shops have gone under, including my favourite 50-year-old sushi restaurant.

3 Nov 2022 20
Risk of global financial crisis spiking
20 Oct 2022

An Asean country might be near a crisis

I am talking about an imaginary country which is a member of Asean. This country may or may not exist. To avoid unnecessary negative repercussions, this country shall remain nameless and be referred to as country "N" with its currency "D". This country is the star of Asean with a 5-year average GDP growth rate of 7% prior to the Covid outbreak.

20 Oct 2022 51
An Asean country might be near a crisis
6 Oct 2022

Interest gap could spell economic peril

On a recent Monday, the Fed called an emergency meeting. The discussion topics were not made known. Could it possibly be about turmoil in the UK bond market and the financial troubles of large investment banks? At this fragile time, the world cannot afford another Lehman Brothers-type disaster.

6 Oct 2022 11
Interest gap could spell economic peril
22 Sep 2022

BMA sorely needs financial advisers

On Sept 7, 2022, the Central Administrative Court ordered the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority (BMA) and its wholly owned subsidiary Krungthep Thanakom (KT) to pay Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company (BTS) back overdue Operating and Maintenance (O&M) fees on extensions 1 and 2 of the Green Line (Sky Train) in the amount of 11.75 billion baht within 180 days.

22 Sep 2022 7
BMA sorely needs financial advisers
8 Sep 2022

Opinion: Thai reserves are quickly depleting

Thailand's international reserves made headlines in mid-July when they fell US$3.3 billion in a single week.

8 Sep 2022 69
Opinion: Thai reserves are quickly depleting
25 Aug 2022

Thai economic contraction beckons

Why does the Thai economy risk facing an economic contraction in the second half of this year? The answer is simple.

25 Aug 2022 23
Thai economic contraction beckons
11 Aug 2022

Demand destruction the new buzzword

On Feb 23, a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the world crude oil price was US$90.60 (3,221 baht) per barrel. Russian oil supply disruption and demand recovery from Covid-19 dragged the crude oil price to almost $120 at the end of May, after the US and European central banks sent strong signals that they would rapidly increase interest rates to contain inflation, despite the cost of a further economic slowdown.

11 Aug 2022 8
Demand destruction the new buzzword
28 Jul 2022

Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet

By the time this article is published, readers will know how much the US Fed funds rate has been raised for the fourth time this year. It does not really matter whether the rate is raised by 0.75% or 1% this time because the Fed will need to keep raising the rate (FFR) until it can effectively control inflation.

28 Jul 2022 10
Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet