Chartchai Parasuk
Freelance economist
Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.
Getting ready for a new economic era
Admittedly, I did not vote for Move Forward Party (MFP). I did like the idea of pro-democracy, equality for all, people-centric policies, and de-monopolisation, all of which they espouse.
New govt faces 4 economic time bombs
The election result is already out and Thailand is heading for a big policy change. As the party with most seats, the Move Forward Party will form the government. The second place-getter -- the Pheu Thai Party -- has agreed to be in the coalition. These two parties, however, have totally different views on how to run the economy.
A new middle class and core industries
This article, after a few interruptions, is Part 3 of "Changing Thailand: The Series." It began with a prologue that presented an overview, emphasising that Thailand has been lagging behind its neighbours in terms of per-capita income growth.
Pheu Thai's giveaway might just work
If one plans to read only one economic analysis article for this year, this is it.
Part 2: Managing household debt
This is the second article, Managing Household Debt, of the Changing Thailand series.
World faces prospect of financial tumult
Today, I was supposed to present the third article, Managing Household Debt, in the series "Changing Thailand". In fact, I have finished drafting a payment reduction model which could reduce monthly debt payments by 4.6 times without the hair-cutting debt principal or requiring government financial support. But I will delay that article for now.
Part 1: The country needs to change
Before I start the article, I would like to report that Thailand's economic performance in January 2023 was no better than the last quarter of 2022, when GDP growth was merely 1.4%.
Changing Thailand: a series (prologue)
Before I start talking economic jargon filled with figures, let me explain Thailand's economic situation in plain language.
Thai economic prospects far from rosy
Logically, one would imagine that 2023 would be a much better year than 2022. Covid is over in every corner of the earth and economic activities resume. The world oil price is below US$80 (2,677 baht) per barrel and inflation is coming down. At the first meeting of 2023, the Fed raises interest rates to merely 25 basis points as opposed to the 50-75 basis points for each meeting in 2022.
Putting a dampener on Thai recovery
After three years in which the economy suffered from Covid effects, I am sorry to say that 2023 will not be the year of economic recovery as everyone had hoped. The global economy will still be plagued by inflation threats and several adverse factors such as excessive debt and the Russia-Ukraine war. These negative factors prompted the World Bank to revise its global economic growth prospects downward from 3.0% to 1.7% for 2023. The key point is a marked slowdown from 2.9% growth in 2022.
