Columnnist

Chartchai Parasuk

Freelance economist

Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.

Chartchai Parasuk
11 Aug 2022

Demand destruction the new buzzword

On Feb 23, a day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the world crude oil price was US$90.60 (3,221 baht) per barrel. Russian oil supply disruption and demand recovery from Covid-19 dragged the crude oil price to almost $120 at the end of May, after the US and European central banks sent strong signals that they would rapidly increase interest rates to contain inflation, despite the cost of a further economic slowdown.

11 Aug 2022 8
Demand destruction the new buzzword
28 Jul 2022

Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet

By the time this article is published, readers will know how much the US Fed funds rate has been raised for the fourth time this year. It does not really matter whether the rate is raised by 0.75% or 1% this time because the Fed will need to keep raising the rate (FFR) until it can effectively control inflation.

28 Jul 2022 10
Fed's rate rises might have way to go yet
14 Jul 2022

BoT can't afford to hold interest rates

Like all countries in the world, the Bank of Thailand (and Monetary Policy Committee, or MPC) believes they can run monetary policy independently based on local economic conditions.

14 Jul 2022 16
BoT can't afford to hold interest rates
30 Jun 2022

City Hall needs a much larger budget

This article is a welcome gift to Bangkok's new governor, Chadchart Sittipunt.

30 Jun 2022 10
City Hall needs a much larger budget
16 Jun 2022

How far should interest rate hikes go?

No doubt remains as to whether the Bank of Thailand will raise interest rates. The bank's governor has made it clear they must be raised to deter rising inflation, and that this must be done in a timely manner. Analysts have taken his speech as indicating a 25bp hike will be introduced at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for Aug 10.

16 Jun 2022 10
How far should interest rate hikes go?
2 Jun 2022

In the end, economic theories prevail

I have made several dire predictions for the Thai economy this year such as high inflation, a liquidity crisis, interest rate hikes, bank collapses, a currency run, and, of course, an economic recession.

2 Jun 2022 16
In the end, economic theories prevail
19 May 2022

Spectre of 2023 global recession looms

In economics, there is no such thing as a surprise. Major economic events like rising inflation, interest rate hikes, currency depreciation, even economic recession can be detected as far as a year ahead.

19 May 2022 20
Spectre of 2023 global recession looms
5 May 2022

Thai interest rate policy needs changing

On March 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the US equivalent of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee, raised its policy interest rate (Fed Funds Rate) by 25 basis points from 0.00%-0.25% to 0.25%-0.50% to tame rising inflation.

5 May 2022 18
Thai interest rate policy needs changing
21 Apr 2022

Expect inflation to worsen, not lessen

The economic theory is clear. Inflation always precedes a recession. Investors also think similarly. A recent Market Live Poll conducted by Bloomberg shows that 15% of investors are expecting a US recession to begin in 2022, 48% in 2023, 21% in 2024 and 16% looking at 2025 or later. Deutsch Bank also believes the US economy could face a recession in 2023.

21 Apr 2022 34
Expect inflation to worsen, not lessen
7 Apr 2022

Yuan won't outrank dollar anytime soon

The issue of the Chinese yuan as a premier international currency has been around for quite some time. Right now, only 3% of international trade transaction is conducted in yuan and, correspondingly, central banks around the world keep only 3% of their international reserves in Yuan. To most, this is quite puzzling as China is the world's second-largest economy with a GDP portion of 13.04% of world GDP and is the world's largest exporter with a global market share of 14.7%.

7 Apr 2022 28
Yuan won't outrank dollar anytime soon