The fallout from a landmark ruling on the South China Sea will cloud the atmosphere of the Asean foreign ministers' meeting in Vientiane this week.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague declared last Tuesday that large areas of the sea are neutral international waters or the exclusive economic zones of other countries. It rejected China's "historical use" argument, ruling in favour of the Philippines which filed the case in 2013.
Some people think the ruling could embolden Asean to finally take a clear, united stand on the issue. But there will be no joint statement at this week's meting in the Lao capital, because "no consensus could be reached", an official source said last Thursday.
We last heard that familiar refrain a month ago in Kunming, when talk turned to the dispute between China and four Asean members: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. That in turn calls to mind the collapse of efforts in 2012, when Cambodia held the chair, to assert Asean "centrality" on issues of regional concern.
With Laos now in the chair, expect "consensus" to remain missing and presumed dead. China is the largest investor in the impoverished country with US$31.45 billion. A $7.2-billion rail line linking Yunnan and Vientiane is also in the works.
We will see how the host steers talks at the Asean-China meeting next Monday, and at future events in which China will take part, including the East Asia Summit in September.
Strong sentiment in China against the ruling in The Hague will also prompt Asean's dialogue partners to measure their words carefully. They will -- again -- call on all parties to refrain from any steps that could lead to confrontations.
The issue will be discussed on the sidelines of the 23rd Asean Regional Forum (ARF), with 27 participants, on July 26, but Asean members will make sure such talk does not pollute the official public sphere.
A diplomat from one Asean country, asking not to be named, acknowledged that China's loss and Manila's moral victory "will be a major topic of discussion in Vientiane".
He continued: "In any case, all sides will realise there is too much at stake here. It's important to find a way to let China take a step back without losing face, because in the end, China should know it can't afford not to be part of a rules-based order."
And that is what Asean is for -- sort of.
There are still a lot of unknowns and "much [will depend] on the leadership in China and the Philippines," said Ong Keng Yong, director of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
"As a former secretary-general of Asean, I wish both sides will work toward implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)," said Mr Ong.
The DOC was finalised in 2002 after a decade of negotiations. Though non-binding, it commits the parties to a set of principles and provides for bilateral negotiations between parties in dispute. It also provides for Asean and China to work toward a full Code of Conduct.
"All Asean member states share a strategic interest with China to look forward and find a way to manage the differences for the benefit of our peoples," said Mr Ong.
But critics are not convinced that Asean will manage very much, especially since Laos and Cambodia are quasi-client states of bossy and agitated China.
Vietnam recently lashed out at China for sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat near the disputed Paracel Islands. A further outburst from Hanoi would hurt the chances for new talks.
Indonesia and Thailand usually can be counted on as good bridge-builders but Jakarta these days has turned inward and foreign policy in Bangkok is adrift.
That leaves Malaysia and Singapore, who might be expected to roll some magic dice. Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi will be making her Asean debut as a foreign minister and will float above the fray.
Given the low expectations for Asean, the world is now waiting for China to exercise some tolerance and show some maturity. Ultimately talk -- even if it goes nowhere -- is better than sending battleships into action.
It's time for President Xi Jinping to back up his claim that China is still "committed to resolving disputes" with its neighbours.
He might also heed the newly conciliatory words from Washington, which carefully described the arbitration ruling as an important diplomatic opportunity.
Diplomacy has to work fast though, before Chinese dredging vessels become permanent fixtures.