Today in 1932, Thailand experienced a drastic transformation when a group of young soldiers and civilians known as the People's Party -- or Khana Ratsadorn -- staged the "Siamese Revolution" with an aspiration to introduce democracy to the country.
But their dreams for democracy have not been fulfilled. Members of the People's Party turned against each other, and continued power games saw a series of coups mounted as military leaders tried to take control in the following decades.
The country had a chance to enjoy a golden era of democracy after the May 1992 people's uprising -- when people gained victory over the Suchinda Kraprayoon regime and pushed the military back to the barracks.
The era was sadly cut short when enormous dissent over business-cum-politician Thaksin Shinatratra's parliamentary dictorship put the country under turmoil that resulted in an intervention by the military under Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin in 2006.
History repeated itself in 2014 when political turbulence triggered by politicians' wrongful acts gave the military an excuse to make another intervention, a coup by Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, together with his brothers in arms who set up the National Council for Peace and Order which promised to bring about reconciliation and unity,
Over the past four years, the NCPO has run the country with tight control. Under the regime, some laws that aimed to curb freedom of expression were enacted, including the Computer Crime Act which was dubiously used against political opponents. Citing peace and order, the military used iron-fist measures against pro-democracy activists, and academics who criticised them. The military stringently exercise its ban on political gathering of five people. Even academic activities have been intervened if not banned. The case of a group of Chiang Mai-based academics is an example.
Human rights advocate Sunai Phasuk rightly observed that Thailand is nowhere close to meeting Gen Prayut's pledge to quickly restore civilian democratic rule.
Due to the NCPO's tight control, commemorations for this special day are not deemed possible and it's likely the day will go by with little public notice.
Moreover, even though it promised not stay in power for long, the NCPO seems to have done the opposite. The military has laid the political infrastructure that ensured it could maintain power and control. This can be seen in the formation of new parties with affiliation to the military, and even the constitution that maintains a special clause to pave the way for an "outsider" prime minister. Delay after delay to the planned election date is seen as part of the plan to enable the military to stay on longer.
There are a number of problems the country will have to face, with the military taking the lead. One is budget allocation. The 2019 national budget that has just been passed saw the coup-installed National Legislative Assembly give the nod to a 20% increase for defence and security. With such a big portion for security, the country has less money for activities to boost its competitiveness.
More importantly, the military presence, direct or indirect, is in no way good for the country's political landscape. While the military has boasted of its ability to keep demonstrators away from the streets over the past four years, this does not necessarily mean the country is closer to unity and reconciliation. And it seems the opposite is the case. Political conflicts remain, and some in fact to have intensified and grown more complicated.
The problem is the NCPO still cannot be clear about its role, if it is to perform as a "referee" or as a political player and there are solid fears the military will have a chance to make political gains, albeit illegitimately. Gen Prayut said this week he would let the public know in September if he would enter the political arena. "It depends on the Thai people,'' when asked if he would join a party. "When I made overseas trips, some Thais I met said they to see my policies continued in Thailand." It remains unclear why things will be clear for him that month.
Tomorrow, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon will chair a meeting with political parties. They are to look for ways to go about preparing for the long-awaiting election next year as promised by Gen Prayut. One major issue is how and to what extent the regime will ease its ban on political activities. The regime will have to handle the rising demands for freedom of expression, and stop infringing upon human rights.
And if Gen Prayut chooses to stay on in politics further, breaking his promises not to linger on in power, he would have give democracy a chance, and play a fair game. He cannot make the election just window dressing for his own or his cronies' benefit. Once again, Thailand's democracy will have to undergo a trial and error session.