China has suddenly encountered a number of problems with its grandiose scheme to revive, modernise and then massively expand the Silk Road of old. Not only have several countries questioned and even pulled out of vital parts of the project. Some have rudely questioned the motives of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), often and even better known as the One Belt, One Road programme.
Ironically, it had appeared momentarily that Thailand would be the major fly in the BRI ointment. If so, that would have hardly caused consternation in China. Officials of the two countries have wrangled for more than two years over one of the BRI's key parts. They have discussed and often disagreed over design, financing and even the workforce of the projected high-speed, north-south railway that it is hoped will link Singapore and Malaysia to Laos and China, through Bangkok and the Northeast.
Those disagreements, which have constantly delayed even the first, Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima link, now appear almost quaint. For as the recent US president Barack Obama once noted, "elections have consequences". China is learning that lesson quickly, as new governments in Malaysia and Pakistan quickly began to re-examine the previous commitments to One Belt, One Road.
Last month, newly re-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad took a drawer full of bad news on his official visit to Beijing. Dr Mahathir had his ministers have cancelled three projects China's President Xi Jinping was counting on. One is a north-south, US$20 billion (654 billion baht) railway up the east coast from the Singapore to the Thai border. Also gone: a natural gas pipeline for Sabah and a planned US$100 billion new town.
That project, called Forest City but in fact a huge Chinatown for 700,000 people, was apparently the straw that broke the back of Dr Mahathir's camel. He told the Chinese authorities that no foreigner -- meaning Chinese citizens -- would be allowed to purchase residential units. Then he pushed it further by referring to "a new version of colonialism".
That was reiteration of the view of Mohamed Nasheed, the exiled opposition of the Maldives. He described China's actions in his country as a "land grab" and "colonialism". He was particularly scathing that in promoting projects within the Maldives, Beijing holds up to 80% of the debt. Sri Lanka was the first country to discover the problem with that. When China financed a port that proved useless, Beijing foreclosed and took over the port and all surrounding land.
Pakistan's new Prime Minister Imran Khan has also proved more than standoffish about the BRI. His Movement for Justice Party has demanded more transparency in the deals with One Belt, One Road. Mr Khan and ministers are particularly wary of the US$63 billion plan to develop the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Baluchistan. This, in turn, is music to the ears of the Indian government, which has refused to support One Belt, One Road at all.
The lessons for Thailand are clear. First and foremost, the government must be constantly evaluating and re-evaluating Chinese-backed projects. Rule No.1 must be that they are mutually beneficial. There are plenty of questions already, for example, about the overall value of building a high-speed, double-track railway all the way to Nong Khai and Laos. The investment, whether initially financed by loans or by China, is massive.
It has been clear from the start that China introduced the One Belt, One Road programme to help China. Beijing bristles at suggestions the plan is a form of neo-colonialism, or controlling countries with huge investments. In light of the problems that democracy has brought recently, China is supposedly re-examining One Belt, One Road, and Thailand should do the same.