Asean's initiative to engage Myanmar on the Rakhine crisis is welcome. Since October 2016, when the first violent attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Solidarity Army (Arsa) on border guard posts led to months-long "clearance operations" by Myanmar's armed forces, the crisis has seen more than 800,000 Rohingya Muslims seek refuge in Bangladesh. While Myanmar had every right to defend its territory, its highly militarised and indiscriminate response worsened the situation.
The foreign ministers of Thailand and Singapore, representing the incoming and outgoing chairs of Asean, are expected to visit Nay Pyi Taw soon. Press reports indicate that they hope to focus their discussions with Myanmar on the return of the refugees.
The impact of the long-standing crisis in Rakhine state is not limited to Myanmar and Bangladesh. It is a regional crisis and it is not new. For decades, Rohingya have been fleeing oppression in Myanmar where many prefer to see them as interlopers from Bangladesh rather than recognise that for many centuries Muslims, including Rohingya, have been part of the diverse ethnic and religious makeup of the coastal populations. In addition to those now in Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands find themselves in Malaysia, Pakistan, India as well as in other countries in Asia and in the Middle East. Although it is difficult to find reliable figures for the number of Rohingya remaining in Rakhine state, estimates range from 200,000 to 400,000.
The world is grateful to Bangladesh for providing sanctuary to the refugees and shouldering a very high burden. The exodus from Myanmar rapidly filled what is now the world's largest refugee camp. Many refugees have already spent more than one year in Bangladesh, trying to come to grips with the traumatic events that forced them to leave and hoping to return to their places of origin once the conditions for safe, dignified and sustainable voluntary returns are in place.
Singapore and Thailand are seeking to work with Myanmar and Bangladesh on the development of plans to repatriate Rohingya. On Oct 24 in 2017, Myanmar and Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding expressing their preparedness to collaborate to ensure the return of the refugees. But one year on the prospects for voluntary returns remain bleak. Myanmar insists it is ready to receive them but has been unwilling to share full information about the arrangements to receive and house hundreds of thousands of returnees. It has showcased a reception centre and temporary housing for a fraction of the total number of refugees, but is yet to present its vision for a stable and prosperous Rakhine state based on equality and inclusion that are essential for a sustainable flow of returnees and prevention of recurrence. Hopefully, the engagement of Singapore and Thailand will help to speed up a proper and accountable organisational process.
It is important that the outgoing and incoming Asean chairs look carefully at the conditions needed for voluntary returns. They should heed the lessons of earlier major outflows of Rohingya to Bangladesh in 1978 and 1991. Many were ultimately returned to Myanmar against their will, where their oppression actually worsened. Conditions were already appalling but from 2012 onwards a system of ethnic segregation was moved into place. Many observers liken the conditions to apartheid. As a result, the already existing "revolving door" syndrome was reinforced: Rohingya fled again and again because the root causes of their oppression remained unaddressed.
Among those now in Bangladesh there are many who have fled their country twice or even three times. It is highly likely that they will have to flee again, unless this time the reasons for their flight are addressed and conditions are in place that guarantee them lives in dignity and harmony, based on equality of all who reside within Rakhine state's borders.
When asked what they see as important conditions, many Rohingya list freedom of movement, citizenship, equal access to health care and to education, as well as a return to their villages of origin and livelihoods. What they ask is not extraordinary. In fact, it is what people around the world look to their governments for.
An additional important condition is the scrapping of all formal and informal measures that contribute to the apartheid system which has had such profoundly negative consequences and not only in terms of entrenching inequality. It has also increased the fear of the "other" and heightened the risk of radicalisation among both Rakhine and Rohingya. If children and youth are told that others -- whom they no longer mingle with -- are the enemy, they will harbour hatred and fear against them. More young Rakhine now feel attracted to the Arakan Army, while young Rohingya are increasingly vulnerable to radicalisation by Arsa and other groups because they no longer see a future for themselves. Ironically, where both sides meet is in their rejection of the armed forces and the Union government.
The final report of the Rakhine Advisory Commission (2017), chaired by the late Kofi Annan, puts forward recommendations to surmount the political, socio-economic and humanitarian challenges facing Rakhine state. The report is clear about the importance of inclusivity and integration. It says that the state will only prosper when these conditions are met: The question should not be whether Rakhine and Muslims will live together, but rather how they will live together. Reintegration, not segregation, is the best path to long-term stability and development in Rakhine state.
The Annan report has been endorsed by the Union government of Myanmar and also by the vast majority of UN member states. Unfortunately, some voices claim that given the massive flight of Rohingya, it is no longer relevant. Nothing is further from the truth. The crisis has actually underlined its urgency. Neglecting the underlying causes of the present reality will only entrench the conflict further. Part of the present reality is that the strong focus on development as the sole and ultimate solution, will not work. The report identifies three main crises: of security, of development and of human rights. All three have to be addressed simultaneously to guarantee future stability and prosperity for all.
It would be tempting to fall back on economic development as a panacea for all ills in Rakhine state. But this temptation to "move on" should be avoided. Getting the repatriation process going, with the first sizable batch of returnees, in a safe and dignified manner is important. This is the minimum that the international community would agree as progress.
The UN have been working with the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh to find ways out of the present crisis. Asean does not have to start from scratch. The appointment of a Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General Christine Schraner Burgener, has already helped to improve communication with the government. Asean can build on this.
What is needed is an approach that combines political, developmental, security and human rights responses, to ensure that violence and inter-communal tensions are kept under control. Addressing the legitimate grievances of the population will help pave the way towards a better future for all communities in Rakhine state.
Laetitia van den Assum is an independent diplomatic expert, a former Dutch ambassador and former member of the Rakhine Advisory Commission headed by the late Kofi Annan. Kobsak Chutikul is a retired Thai ambassador and former member of parliament.